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Highest third-quarter mortality since 2010, says CMI

11 October 2022

During the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s update covers week 39 of 2022 (23 to 30 September) and the third quarter of 2022, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 October 2022.

The key points of this update are:

  • Mortality in the third quarter of 2022 was 9% higher than in the same quarter of 2019, before the pandemic, and higher than in any third quarter since 2010. This contrasts with the first half of 2022, which had similar mortality to 2019.
  • The deterioration in mortality in the third quarter was seen across a broad range of ages
  • There were 12,700 more deaths than expected from all causes in the UK in the third quarter of 2022. There were 7,300 deaths in the UK with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate during that period.
  • There have been around 137,800 more deaths from all causes than expected in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 30 September 2022.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The third quarter of 2022 saw unusually high mortality for the time of year – higher than any third quarter since 2010.

“Deaths with Covid on the death certificate only account for around 60% of the excess deaths seen during the quarter, so there were more deaths than expected from non-COVID causes. This contrasts with most of the pandemic period, when non-Covid deaths were lower than expected.

“Data from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) suggests that increased deaths from heart and circulatory diseases have contributed to the excess seen in the third quarter. While heatwaves led to short-term increases in deaths, analysis by the ONS shows that their impact was not the primary cause of excess mortality over the quarter as a whole.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Contact

Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

Notes to editor

  1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent “normal” year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
  2. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).
  3. The CMI plans to publish:
    • A weekly “summary” pandemic monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 40 of 2022 on Tuesday 18 October 2022.
    • More detailed information quarterly, with a press release. The next is planned for data to the end of 2022 in January 2023.

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.
The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.
Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long-term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.
Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including Covid-19 and its long-term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.

Contact Details:

Contact Details:

For all media queries please contact Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager

+44 (0) 20 7632 2126

For out of hours, the Press Office can be contacted at: press.office@actuaries.org.uk. We aim to respond to all enquiries as quickly as possible.
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