Past, present and future of cancer mortality: are we embarking on a new wave of mortality improvement?

Fri 21 Feb 2025 -
16:30 - 17:30 (GMT)

Historically, mortality improvements have occurred in waves, such as the rapid reduction in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. This reduction in CVD deaths has in part rendered the contribution of cancer to future mortality improvement and longevity risk even more material.

The aim of this workshop is to:

  • review the last 70 years of cancer mortality experience in the US, UK, Canada and Japan
  • discuss the changing landscape of modifiable risk factors and emerging mitigation measures for non-modifiable risk factors
  • examine recent advances in cancer site-specific and site-agnostic early detection and treatment

We may be on the cusp of another significant shift, propelled by breakthroughs in cancer therapies. To gain a good grasp of this potential new regimen, a review of cancer risk factors and site-specific mortality trends will provide a window into the future of cancer mortality risks.

This risk will then be weighed against recent treatment advances, particularly chimeric antigen receptor-T cell therapy (CAR-T), immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) and mRNA vaccines, and their potential to reshape actuarial assumptions about mortality. Given the demographic profile of cancer mortality, these advances are likely to translate into differential improvements by sex and key age groups.

We aim to provide actuaries with a comprehensive understanding of the past, present and future of cancer mortality and which demographic groups are likely to benefit. This knowledge will enhance their ability to assess longevity risk and refine mortality forecasting models. The workshop is designed for actuaries across all experience levels who are interested in incorporating medical perspectives into life product assessments, including pensions and annuities.

 

Key outcomes

  • Gain a wholistic view of cancer mortality risk
  • Learn about the latest cancer treatment advancements
  • Understand how their translated mortality improvements might differ by sex and age
  • Recognise that trends in competing causes of death affect the overall mortality improvements
  • Appreciate the benefit of adding a medical perspective into longevity and mortality models

 

Speakers

  • Chair: Nicola Draper, IFoA Health and Care Board
  • Lisanne Horvat-Gitsels, Moody’s
  • Brice Jabo, Moody's

Pricing and booking information

Members Book for free
Non-members £45