Microsimulation models for malaria cost estimation and generation of evidence to support policy

Thu 06 Jul 2023 -
09:00 - 10:00

Malaria is a serious ailment that can be life-threatening if not treated early. It has remained a significant global health burden over the past few decades.

In Kenya, it is still one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality despite substantial efforts to provide access to treatment.

In this session, we apply microsimulation modelling techniques to estimate the age-specific cost of malaria in Kenya. This involves modelling malaria cost at an individual level, enabling us to retrieve and use person-specific information otherwise concealed in the aggregates. The incorporation of a resistance model helped us to evaluate a vaccination programme.

Featured Speakers

Chair

Tim Higgins is an Associate Professor of Actuarial Studies, and a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia. Tim has done extensive research in income-contingent loan theory and applications, with a primary focus on policy analysis, model development and costing of the Australian HECS scheme.

His other research has included stochastic modelling of earnings dynamics, demographic modelling, financial literacy and behaviour, and superannuation and retirement policy. Tim’s research has been funded twice through the Australian Research Council’s Linkage Projects as well as once through their Academies Linkage Grant (Academy of Social Sciences of Australia).

Tim’s work has appeared in top peer reviewed journals including Economics of Education Review and Australian Journal of Management. He has also made direct contributions to parliamentary and government agenda, independent and industry practice, with analysis and insights provided in the media. Finally, Tim is co-editor and author of the book Income Contingent Loans: Theory, Practice and Prospects with Professor Bruce Chapman and Nobel Laureate, Joseph Stiglitz.

Titus is an actuary and a lecturer of actuarial science at the Australian National University. He has worked in both pensions and life insurance firms before moving to research. In his career, Titus has been involved in various actuarial and statistical consultancies.

Titus is interested in applying actuarial techniques in health economic and universal health coverage issues and has made various publications and presentations at conferences. He is exploring the application of actuarial techniques in economic evaluations and public policy, focusing on costing malaria through micro-simulation techniques. Titus has developed a microsimulation model that can be used to estimate malaria costs in Kenya and generate evidence to support vaccination policy recommendations. He has also written for The Actuary magazine on emerging issues in the actuarial field and undertaken consultancy work.