Humanity as the Titanic: Actuaries, get into that wheelhouse!

Fri 19 May 2023 -
09:00 - 10:30

It is clear that we, humanity, are not doing enough to address the risks and opportunities of climate change. In finance – investment, insurance and banking – we are bedevilled by the not-fit-for-purpose NGFS/CBES climate scenarios.

The good news is that a tipping point in finance is at hand. And actuaries can, and must, accelerate its arrival. How? We must enter the wheelhouse. When? ASAP. With what? With our risk and uncertainty skills (and a dash of public interest ‘fairness’). We need to help out the economists, and support regulators and policymakers. Perhaps the best opportunity of our careers!

The talk will:

  • explain why the NGFS/CBES climate scenarios need to evolve, building on the work of the RWCS (Real World Climate Scenarios) initiative
  • offer narrative scenarios as part of the way forward (and mention who is starting to use them) – narratives eat modelling for breakfast
  • promote positive tipping points
  • increase your personal agency, your willingness and ability to act, and thus your agency in your network
  • introduce EEIST thinking
  • turn the US IRA subsidies discussion inside out (nature has been subsidising humanity)
  • check you have checked out TAS100

Featured speakers

Chair

At the IFoA, Sophie is a member of the Finance and Investment Board and the Risk Management Board and Chair of the Lifelong Learning Committee for Risk Management.

Sophie has expertise in business strategy and risk oversight in the financial sector. She has held senior roles at international investment banks BNP Paribas, JP Morgan, and ABN Amro over 25 years. She has led global projects with multicultural teams to improve business performance.

As a risk and strategy advisor, Sophie has focused on 3 topics: digitalisation at the International Banking Federation, board governance, diversity and inclusion for senior roles and community development at European Women on Boards.

She is a member of the Risk Coalition Advisory group, helping to raise the bar for risk management in financial services, and regularly gives back to London Business School as an MBA alumna.

Mike Clark is Founder Director of Ario Advisory, a responsible investment advisory firm. Working mostly across the finance sector in the UK and elsewhere, Mike’s work focuses on climate and, currently, systemic risk (two types: societal vs financial).

He is a Visiting Fellow at the University of Exeter, and a member of the IFoA Lifelong Learning Risk Committee. One of the authors of the USS/Exeter No Time To Lose narrative climate scenarios, he is also one author of the more recent CMP (Climate Majority Project) set of 3 narrative climate scenarios for insurance.

He views the investment aspects of fiduciary duty through a Risk/Opportunity lens. Pension actuaries might wish to consider the implications of the Great Abandonment scenario, where insurance seems to reside at present, and the implications for their clients’ (and their own!) fiduciary duty.

Sandy is the Past-Chair of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Sustainability Board and Vice-Chair of the International Actuarial Association’s Climate Change and Sustainability Committee. He is the lead author of a series of collaborative research reports which bring together science and risk, seeking to improve policymaker level risk management. The latest report, ‘Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature’, explores how actuarial techniques can help society manage climate change and other risks.

This builds on the findings from ‘Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail’, which highlighted concerns around carbon budgets being unrealistic and ‘The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios’ – which highlighted the limitations of commonly used climate scenarios. 

Sandy’s personal mission is to help reconnect finance and the economy to nature and the biosphere to deliver a future worth living in.

He works with investors and advises a number of regulatory and policymaker groups on these topics.

Events Team

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