Humanity as the Titanic: Actuaries, get into that wheelhouse!

Fri 19 May 2023 -
09:00 - 10:30

It is clear that we, humanity, are not doing enough to address the risks and opportunities of climate change. In finance – investment, insurance and banking – we are bedevilled by the not-fit-for-purpose NGFS/CBES climate scenarios.

The good news is that a tipping point in finance is at hand. And actuaries can, and must, accelerate its arrival. How? We must enter the wheelhouse. When? ASAP. With what? With our risk and uncertainty skills (and a dash of public interest ‘fairness’). We need to help out the economists, and support regulators and policymakers. Perhaps the best opportunity of our careers!

The talk will:

  • explain why the NGFS/CBES climate scenarios need to evolve, building on the work of the RWCS (Real World Climate Scenarios) initiative
  • offer narrative scenarios as part of the way forward (and mention who is starting to use them) – narratives eat modelling for breakfast
  • promote positive tipping points
  • increase your personal agency, your willingness and ability to act, and thus your agency in your network
  • introduce EEIST thinking
  • turn the US IRA subsidies discussion inside out (nature has been subsidising humanity)
  • check you have checked out TAS100

Featured speakers

Chair

At the IFoA, Sophie is a member of the Finance and Investment Board and the Risk Management Board and Chair of the Lifelong Learning Committee for Risk Management.

Sophie has expertise in business strategy and risk oversight in the financial sector. She has held senior roles at international investment banks BNP Paribas, JP Morgan, and ABN Amro over 25 years. She has led global projects with multicultural teams to improve business performance.

As a risk and strategy advisor, Sophie has focused on 3 topics: digitalisation at the International Banking Federation, board governance, diversity and inclusion for senior roles and community development at European Women on Boards.

She is a member of the Risk Coalition Advisory group, helping to raise the bar for risk management in financial services, and regularly gives back to London Business School as an MBA alumna.

Mike Clark runs a responsible investment advisory business and focuses on climate change, finance and systemic risk (in two flavours). He was a member of TPR’s Transition Plan Working Group and co-author of the resulting Transition Planning Code, not endorsed by TPR at the time of writing. He views tipping points in financial markets as a near-certainty. What is the actuarial response? He is interested in the future of actuarial practice, a practice which may assume too often the system is stationary. Historical frequencies can systemically understate future risk. He is minded to advocate for the insurance industry to be mandated to invest, alongside government, in SRM (Solar Radiation Modification) research.

Sandy is the past chair of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Sustainability Board and is a member of the International Actuarial Association’s Climate Change and Sustainability Committee. He is the lead author of a series of collaborative research reports that bring together science and risk, seeking to improve policymaker-level risk management.

The latest report, ‘Parasol Lost: Recovery plan needed’, calls for a Planetary Solvency recovery plan to stabilise the climate and support humanity to find its balance with nature.

Sandy’s personal mission is to help reconnect finance and the economy to nature and the biosphere to deliver a future worth living in.

He works with investors and advises a number of regulatory and policymaker groups on these topics.