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Record low summer mortality, says CMI

8 October 2025

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) publishes frequent mortality analysis for England and Wales through its mortality monitors. Today’s updates cover the period to 26 September 2025.

The key points are:    

  • Overall mortality in the third quarter of 2025 was lower than in any other quarter. The previous record low was for the third quarter of 2020, in the aftermath of the first wave of the pandemic.
  • Overall mortality in the first three-quarters of 2025 was lower than in the first three-quarters of any other year, and 1.4% of a full year’s mortality lower than in the first three-quarters of 2024. 
  • Mortality so far in 2025 is at or near a record low for many age groups, but males aged 45-64 are a notable exception. While their mortality has reduced since the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains higher than in any year from 2011 to 2019. 
  • There were around 3,200 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in the first three-quarters of 2025, fewer than 1% of deaths in 2025 so far. This compares to around 7,600 in the first three-quarters of 2024 and 13,600 in the first three-quarters of 2023.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “Despite heatwaves, mortality this summer was lower than ever before. This contributed to mortality to date in 2025 also being at a record low. 

“Most age groups have seen mortality fall over the past year but a notable exception to this is males aged 45-64, whose mortality remains above pre-pandemic levels.”

All mortality monitor updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

1. The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:

  • We publish a summary monitor monthly, every four or five weeks, without a press release. The next is planned for week 44 of 2025 on Wednesday 12 November 2025.
  • Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for the end of 2025, in January 2026.

2. Because the Office for National Statistics published data weekly, we use data for weeks 1-13, 14-26 and 27-39 for the first, second and third quarter respectively. These do not align exactly with calendar months.

3. Death certification reforms were implemented on 9 September 2024:

  • Following the reforms, the five-day period for registering a death starts on the date that the registrar receives a signed medical certificate of cause of death from the medical examiner, or relevant notification from the coroner. 
  • Previously, deaths should legally have been registered within five days of the death occurring or the date on which a body was found (including weekends and bank holidays), unless a coroner was involved. 

4. We note that results by age should currently be treated with particular caution as delays in registrations versus occurrences could have impacted different age ranges to different degrees.

 

Contact

Hannah Patmore, Communications Manager, IFoA  
Tel: 07519106714  
Email: hannah.patmore@actuaries.org.uk  

 

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

 

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.  

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.   

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues. 

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London. 

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society. 

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.