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Record low death rates in 2024, says CMI

15 January 2025

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) publishes frequent mortality analysis for England & Wales through its mortality monitor. Today’s update covers the period to 3 January 2025 and in particular, sets out results for the whole of 2024.

The key points are:

  • In England & Wales, mortality for 2024 was nearly 4% lower than in 2023 and slightly below the previous record low seen in 2019.
  • Death rates fell in all age categories between 2023 and 2024.
  • However, mortality compared to the 2014 to 2023 average varies significantly by age.
  • Mortality in 2024 for ages 20 to 44 was 2% above the 10-year average, which includes the peak pandemic period, while mortality for ages 45 to 64 was 2% below the 10-year average and mortality for ages 65 to 100 was 6% below.
  • There were around 10,000 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in 2024, compared to around 17,000 in 2023 and 33,000 in 2022.
  • Our analysis is based on death registrations. The impact of death certificate reform in 2024 is to increase the time taken to register deaths. This means that the numbers of deaths registered in 2024 may be around 0.25% lower than if the reforms had not been implemented.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “2024 has had low mortality, with death rates below the previous record lows seen in 2019. However, we would typically expect mortality rates to fall over time, and mortality in 2024 has been higher than projected before the pandemic.

“Mortality trends have differed greatly by age. Remarkably, mortality for younger adults is still above the ten-year average. In contrast, mortality for ages 75 to 84 is 8% below.”
All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

1. The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:

  • Each week we publish a summary monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 2 of 2025 on Wednesday 22 January 2025.
  • Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for the end of the first quarter of 2025, in April 2025.

2. Death certification reforms were implemented on 9 September 2024:

  • Following the reforms, the 5-day period for registering a death starts on the date that the registrar receives a signed medical certificate of cause of death from the medical examiner, or relevant notification from the coroner.
  • Previously, deaths should legally have been registered within 5 days of the death occurring or the date on which a body was found (including weekends and bank holidays), unless a coroner was involved.
  • Our analysis suggests that weekly figures were only materially affected in the weeks shortly after that date, but deaths and the cumulative standardised mortality rate for 2024 may be around 0.25% lower and the mortality improvement for 2024 may be around 0.25% higher than if the reforms had not been implemented.

 

Contact

Hannah Patmore, Communications Manager, IFoA  
Tel: 07519106714  
Email: hannah.patmore@actuaries.org.uk  

 

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

 

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.  

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.   

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues. 

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London. 

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society. 

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.