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CMI says recent mortality remains above pre-pandemic levels

11 July 2023

In light of the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s updates cover week 26 of 2023 (to 30 June) and the second quarter of 2023, based on provisional deaths data published for England & Wales by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 11 July 2023, for Scotland by National Records of Scotland on 6 July 2023 and for Northern Ireland by Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency on 7 July 2023.

The mortality monitors have been updated to take account of the results of the 2021 census published to date by the ONS. The census changes our view of population estimates and leads us to increase our estimate of excess mortality.

The key points of the quarterly update are:

  • In the UK, there have been around 200,100 more deaths from all causes than expected from the start of the pandemic to 30 June 2023. Of these, 75,600 occurred in 2020, 56,500 in 2021, 39,400 in 2022 and 28,500 in the first half of 2023.
  • The second quarter of 2023 had excess deaths but at a lower level than the previous four quarters (see chart below).
  • There were 4,600 deaths registered in the UK in the second quarter of 2023 with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, which is around 60% of the total number of excess deaths in the second quarter of 2023.

Graph showing quarterly excess deaths from week 10 of 2020 to Q2 of 2023 in England and Wales and in the UK.

The key points of the week 26 update are:

  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 26 of 2023 was 452 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 26 of 2019; equivalent to 5% more deaths than expected.
  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 129 in week 26 of 2023.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The second quarter of 2023 saw continuing excess mortality for the fifth quarter in a row, but at a lower level than the previous year.

“However, despite falling COVID deaths, mortality in 2023 is very likely to be higher than 2022.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Contact

Sonia Sequeira, Communications Lead, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

Notes to editors

  1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent “normal” year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
  2. The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:
    • Each week we publish a summary monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 27 of 2023 on Tuesday 18 July 2023.
    • Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for week 39 of 2023, in October 2023.
  3. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020), with the first wave of the pandemic broadly falling into Q2 of 2020 (week 13 of 2020 to week 26 of 2020) and the second wave of the pandemic broadly falling into Q1 of 2021 (week 1 of 2021 to week 13 of 2021).

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.