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CMI says 2022 had the worst second half for mortality since 2010

17 January 2023

In light of the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s updates cover week 1 of 2023 (to 6 January), based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 17 January 2023. This enables us to analyse mortality for the whole of 2022.

The key points of these updates are:

  • Mortality for 2022 as a whole was 4.5% higher than 2019, but 7.8% lower than in 2020 and 2.2% lower than in 2021.
  • There is a striking difference in how mortality rates in 2022 compare to 2019 at different ages – ranging from 2.5% higher for ages 75-84 to 7.8% higher for ages 20-44.
  • In the UK, there have been around 155,300 more deaths from all causes than expected from the start of the pandemic to 6 January 2023. Of these, 72,900 occurred in 2020, 47,500 in 2021, and 31,000 in 2022.
  • In the UK, the second half of 2022 had 26,300 excess deaths, compared to 4,700 in the first half of 2022.

Deaths registered in week 1 of 2023 are affected by public holidays, when register offices are typically closed and some registrations will be delayed. Figures for this week are not directly comparable to other weeks:

  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 1 of 2023 was 3,437 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 1 of 2019; equivalent to 30% more deaths than expected.
  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 739 in week 1 of 2023.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “Although weekly excess mortality in the second half of 2022 wasn’t nearly as high as the peaks earlier in the pandemic, it was persistent. This led to more excess deaths in the second half of 2022 than in the second half of any year since 2010.

“Excess mortality has been particularly high recently with more than 7,000 excess deaths over the three weeks to 6 January 2023.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

 

Notes to editors

  1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent “normal” year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
  2. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).

The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:

  • Each week we publish a summary monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 2 of 2023 on Tuesday 24 January 2023.
  • Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for week 13 of 2023, in April 2023.

Contact

Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.

Contact Details:

Contact Details:

For all media queries please contact Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager

+44 (0) 20 7632 2126

For out of hours, the Press Office can be contacted at: press.office@actuaries.org.uk. We aim to respond to all enquiries as quickly as possible.
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