My account

CMI says Q1 2023 had worst excess mortality since the pandemic’s second wave

13 April 2023

In light of the coronavirus pandemic, the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) is publishing frequent UK mortality analysis through its mortality monitor. Today’s updates cover week 13 of 2023 (to 31 March) and the first quarter of 2023, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 13 April 2023.

The key points of the quarterly update are:

  • In the UK, there have been around 171,600 more deaths from all causes than expected from the start of the pandemic to 31 March 2023. Of these, 72,900 occurred in 2020, 47,500 in 2021, 31,000 in 2022 and 20,200 in the first quarter of 2023.
  • The first quarter of 2023 had the highest number of excess deaths since the pandemic’s second wave in the first quarter of 2021 (see chart below).
  • There were 8,600 deaths registered in the UK in the first quarter of 2023 with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, which account for around 40% of total excess deaths.

Graph of mortality figures in England and Wales and the UK from 2020 Q1 to 2023 Q1.

The key points of the week 13 update are:

  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales in week 13 of 2023 was 1,210 higher than if mortality rates had been the same as in week 13 of 2019; equivalent to 12% more deaths than expected.
  • The number of deaths registered in England & Wales with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate was 634 in week 13 of 2023.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “The first quarter of 2023 was the fourth consecutive quarter with significant excess mortality, and had the highest quarterly excess mortality since the peak of the second wave of the pandemic.

“While the quarter averaged over 600 UK COVID deaths a week, more than half of the excess was due to other causes.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

  1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent “normal” year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
  2. The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:
    1. Each week we publish a summary monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 14 of 2023 on Tuesday 18 April 2023.
    2. Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for week 26 of 2023, in July 2023.
  3. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020) and the second wave as being registrations from week 38 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 12 September 2020).

Contact

Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.

Contact Details:

Contact Details:

For all media queries please contact Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager

+44 (0) 20 7632 2126

For out of hours, the Press Office can be contacted at: press.office@actuaries.org.uk. We aim to respond to all enquiries as quickly as possible.
Email