Life Conference 2023

Lord Professor Robert Winston is a doctor, scientist, politician, TV presenter and business speaker. Best known for his inspiring television medical documentaries based on fertility, reproduction and technological innovation is this practice, Robert’s pre-eminent expertise in the field makes him the ideal TV presenter and host.

Professor Robert Winston is a Professor of Science and Society along with an Emeritus Professor of Fertility Studies at Imperial College. Within his own research, Robert currently looks to improve the production of stem cells to reduce genetic abnormalities in embryos.

In 1995, Robert became Baron Winston, life peer of the London Borough of Hammersmith. Robert speaks frequently on medicine, education, science and the arts whilst also holding posts such as Chairman of the Science and Technology Select Committee. During after dinner speeches, Robert interacts with audiences and enlightens listeners about the complexities of human biology and science. Engaging and compelling, Robert can tailor his content as a technology speaker to make his talks specific to your brief.

Winston’s highly regarded documentary work includes Superhuman, The Secret Life Of Twins and Child of Our Time has received some of the highest accolades for television work, including a BAFTA for The Human Body.

He also sits on the Labour party benches in the House of Lords and speaks on a regular basis there on education, medicine and science. He was previously Chairman of the House of Lords Select Committee for Science and Technology and is now Vice-Chairman and a board member of the Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology. An ideal after dinner and keynote technology speaker, Robert’s knowledge of technology and its influence within his profession makes Robert an inspirational speaker.

With more and more regulatory and industry focus on measuring and managing climate risk, actuaries are increasingly considering if climate risks should be explicitly captured in capital requirements. And if so, how?

In this talk the speakers will:

• cover recent developments in industry thinking on climate risk in the capital framework
• offer possible answers to if and how climate risk should be allowed for

Speakers: Charlie Beard and Eoin O’Byrne, PIC

Unlike banking, insurance usually stays out of the headlines when it comes to interest rate changes by the Bank of England or the Fed. This comes as no surprise when insurers hold long-term bonds to back their long-lived liabilities while bankers are exposed to the immediate demands of depositors.

However, a decade of extremely low interest rates and the pursuit of higher yield through more illiquid assets have fashioned the financial world in many aspects. In the face of recent successive hikes in interest rates, these can take a long time to unwind. It is a problem tackled already by banks and soon by insurers.

4most engages actively with both banking clients through its credit risk consulting team and economic modelling team and insurance clients through its insurance consulting team. This talk aims to cover the rising interest rate impacts on and reactions to:

• management of liquidity assets
• balance sheet volatility
• M&A and other transactions
• cash remittance strategy
• solvency

4Most will do this by leveraging its joint research on modelling macro-economic variables and the impact on consumers and financial institutions.

Speakers: Keith Church and Dharmesh Roopun, 4Most

The IFoA Climate Stress and Scenario Working Party has been developing a framework to help companies develop organisation specific and decision useful climate narratives and stress and scenario tests.

The working party will be publishing this paper in Q3 2023. The aim of this presentation is to present its framework for climate stress and scenario testing.

This session, and our paper, would be of interest to:

• organisations that are starting out on their climate scenario journeys
• organisations looking to advance their current approaches

As such it would be of interest to actuaries working in the climate space and responsible for developing climate and other scenarios.

Speaker: Adel Drew, Milliman and Deepanjali Talwar

Traditionally, the risk function has been perceived as conservative and cautious, often seen as a potential barrier to innovation and growth. But this perception is changing as forward-thinking chief risk officers (CROs) recognise the value of aligning risk management with the broader strategic objectives of their organisations.

This session will explore the transformation of the risk function. It will do this by delving into the ways in which CROs can proactively support and contribute to the overall company strategy.

It will highlight successful case studies and best practices from companies that have effectively integrated the risk function into their strategic decision-making processes. They have done this by strengthening the collaboration between risk management and other key functions.

The session will address the importance of effective communication and transparency in risk reporting. It will raise awareness of the breadth of expertise and knowledge required by the CRO to meet expectations from stakeholders.

The key outcomes are to:

• challenge the conventional perception of risk management in the insurance industry
• understand the various roles CROs can take, and where developments might be required to remain relevant in a constantly evolving environment
• be aware of the emerging best practice to navigate uncertainties, seize opportunities, and drive sustainable growth in an increasingly dynamic market

Speakers: Iain Maclugash and Julian Masselot, Barnett Waddingham

HIV has gone from a virtually uninsurable disease in its first decades to a near standard rates risk for many people living with the disease. In this session, learn how advances in medicine and improved data monitoring has resulted in HIV being considered as just another chronic disease.

Dr Steven Wiseman will share how Munich Re’s extensive research resulted in people living with HIV now having access to protection types other than life.

The audience will learn how the industry can now be confident to extend insurability to many people previously unable to buy many insurance products.

Speaker: Dr Steven Wiseman, Munich Re

Private equity and venture capital provide a vital role in the growth of new companies and novel technologies. Those who engage with these strategies can find future leaders across a diverse group of sectors, equipped with disruptive technologies and a desire to reshape traditional business.

The session will focus on this dynamic and increasingly prominent financial sector. It will explore the role of private equity and venture capital and its part in nurturing growth in UK start-ups through to listing.

The Mansion House Reforms, supported by a compact of major insurance companies to commit 5% of default pension savings to ‘unlisted equity’, pave the way for a future of pension investment benefitting from private equity and real asset returns. This was previously only available to high net worth individuals and inaccessible to many workplace pension investors.

Aligning the investment potential of pension savings with the traditional defined contribution model and private equity fund structures is the core challenge in achieving the goals of the Mansion House and Edinburgh reforms. How do UK insurers manage liquidity risk and redemptions with increased private asset allocation? And can insurers encourage good outcomes for policyholders and the broader economy through investment in UK private equity, infrastructure, and other productive assets?

Speakers: Sam Tufts and Tom Brown, Phoenix Group

This talk will focus on how Consumer Duty impacts with-profits, including the application to the legacy with-profits. Sam Jones is a non-actuary working in the insurance space, with both legal and regulatory background, and has spent time with the FCA on this topic. She will complement the actuarial view in this session.

The content will cover:

• recap of relevant Consumer Duty concepts
• views of how this can impact with-profits including WPCs, PPFMS, and consumer understanding
• view from the market using PwC’s with-profits survey that includes a section on Consumer Duty and will be published in September
• view from a life insurer

Speakers: Kirs Overlunde and Sam Jones, PwC; Brian Murray, The Phoenix Group

Mortality projection models, such as that produced by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), are highly sensitive to recent mortality data. In addition, the past data does not fully capture recent real-world changes that we expect to impact on future mortality, but that are only just emerging in longevity data.

These factors do not preclude the use of extrapolative models to express mortality improvements. But they fundamentally change the process by which such models need to be calibrated. Many organisations are now challenged with making sense of recent data and information, such that it can be translated into a ‘post-pandemic’ trend assumption.

This session will discuss these challenges and share Hymans Robertson’s approach to navigating them. It will set out the company’s methodology for deriving a ‘post-pandemic view’ of future mortality. This will include a discussion on the recent real-world changes that will impact views of mortality, including strains on the NHS and the ongoing impact of COVID-19.

This presentation will be suitable for longevity assumption setting teams and anyone interested in the underlying drivers that will shape future improvements. Only a basic understanding of the concepts of longevity improvements assumptions will be required.

Speaker: Megan Hart, Andrew Devine, and Kara Scott, Hymans Robertson

In a world dominated by fake news, phone hacking and information overload, who can you trust? Your insurer?

Trust is the cornerstone of the life insurance industry. It is fundamental for consumers to trust insurers to ‘do the right thing’. So what can we do to build trusted relationships for the benefit of all?

Looking at trust in the workplace, this session will explore:

• a model to consider your approach to trust, and how to influence your impact to deepen trust
• what creates trust, and how to build deeper levels of trust and the eroding impacts of fake news
• how we can improve trust in our teams to drive better performance
• trust in insurance

It will also explore the current trust landscape in the insurance industry (insurers and advisers). We’ll discuss:

• how technology can build more trust between customers and the industry to facilitate long term relationships
• how different generations trust
• Consumer Duty: effective trust builder or generator of mistrust?

Speakers: Ewen Tweedie, James Cousins, and Jessica Lewis, PwC, and Toby Hester, Wesleyan

This session will illustrate the transformative potential of generative AI. It will do this through a range of concrete AI use cases, showcasing a wide range of powerful applications seen in this field.

Most discussion of large language models (LLMs) focuses on their ability to write essays or computer code, which is impressive but less relevant to actuaries. Instead, this session will examine how LLMs can be augmented with insurance domain knowledge and be integrated into processes to accelerate actuarial modelling and financial reporting.

This presentation will build on earlier versions presented at CILA and the Society of Actuaries, Ireland, with a wider range of practical insurance-related use cases. It will outline the workings of the LLMs that underlie tools like ChatGPT and Github Copilot.

Given the rapid advances in this field, it will also provide an update on other leading AI models advances (that is, ‘non-ChatGPT’ models). It will discuss the pros and cons and potential future capabilities of these models.

The agenda will cover:

• introduction to LLMs
• AI use cases
• expert systems
• documentation generation
• providing insights on regulations
• writing code
• model translation
• what’s new in 2023 ‘Q3.5’?

Speaker: Matthew Edwards, Daniel Ramsay, and Arlen Galicia Carreon, WTW

With central banks across the globe battling soaring inflation, it’s never been more important for insurers to manage their significant exposures to LPI-linked liabilities. This is especially in the context of anticipated record years for the bulk annuity market.

In this session, experts from PIC and NatWest Markets will:

• explain limited price indexation (LPI) and some of the complexities built within typical pension and annuity contracts
• outline the instruments insurers can use to hedge LPI contracts
• give insight into the market as a whole

Speaker: James Gillespie, NatWest Markets and Mark Hurdley, PIC

Martin Bonus and Tim Scott designed the Insurance Resolution Regime (IRR) at the Bank of England, working alongside HM Treasury, and were involved in the Prudential Regulation Authority’s (PRA) development of exit planning.

They’re here to offer some guidance and clarity in regards to overlapping and sometimes confusing terminology. Many insurers already have resolution plans, but these documents are not necessarily well-positioned for exit planning in the current regime. There can be misunderstandings about the PRA’s powers, the relevance of the Solvency II ‘ladder of intervention’, and insolvency triggers. The (potential) introduction of the IRR would add additional powers that insurers would need to prepare for.

Marty and Tim will provide much-needed clarity on what it means to write a resolution plan, in the current regime and the (potential) future Insurance Resolution Regime.

Speaker: Martin Bonus, Bonus Actuarial Consulting Ltd; Tim Scott

Multiple firms are considering entry to the UK bulk annuity market. This is because of the potential for strong volumes and returns on capital over the next 10 years or more. This presentation will explore the attractiveness of the market and the opportunities and challenges that firms face when entering.

Russell Lee, Head of Insurance Solutions at M&G, will discuss M&G’s experience of entering the market in 2023. Chris Anderson, Head of Bulk Annuity Consulting at EY, will set out his views on the market based on working with multiple new entrants.

This presentation is aimed at those with some prior knowledge of the BPA market.

Speakers: Chris Anderson, EY and Russell Lee, M&G

Thanks to SS3/19, significant work has been done to embed financial risks from climate change within risk management frameworks, and in generally considering climate factors in the work actuaries do.

Less focus has been given to the other elements in ESG. However, insurers should consider the implications of all facets of ESG on their businesses. We are starting to see more of a focus on this with discussions on a ‘just transition’ and more recently nature-related disclosures.

This presentation will consider the wider implications of a world with a changing climate. It will focus on other environment and nature-related issues, social considerations, and the importance of specific E and S governance considerations. It will also explore how these elements are interconnected and not standalone and therefore should be considered together.

This presentation is suitable for a wide audience and does not assume any existing knowledge of the topic. However, it may be of particular interest to actuaries working within risk management.

Speakers: Amy Nicholson, Charlie Howell, and Nick Spencer, Milliman

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the impact infectious diseases have in wider society as well as the acute direct impacts on mortality and morbidity. This session will advocate the utility of life catastrophe modelling techniques for understanding pandemics and how pandemics produce cascading impacts into the economy and society.

The session will:

• introduce key principles of infectious disease modelling and how biological principles can help understand the nature of pandemic risks in a foundational way
• consider how human responses to pandemics influence the outcomes of pandemics directly via:
  
  • non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)
  • pharmaceutical interventions
  • vaccine production and roll out and their interplay with NPIs
• discuss how some key responses such as NPIs and vaccines have wider consequences including the:
  
  • implications at a macroeconomic level
  • implications of NPIs in terms of business interruption
• discuss chronic cascading impacts and the extent to which understanding longer term health impacts from the pandemic impact wider society, for example in labour markets

By the end of the session attendees should have a broader perspective on how seemingly disparate risks influence each other and the benefits of considering risk holistically.

Speaker: Ragav Sawhney, Moody’s

The research project, an analysis of diabetes mortality and morbidity risk, was commissioned by the IFoA’s Actuarial Research Centre (ARC), Pacific Life Re, Partner Re, Swiss Re, Legal & General, and Zurich Insurance Group.

The research is being carried out by world-leading experts in risk analysis, risk modelling, and risk evaluation at the University of Leicester, Dr Bogdan Grechuk, Dr Evgeny Mirkes, and Professor Alexander Gorban. They are supported by the Real World Evidence Centre and the Leicester Diabetes Centre, a unique, collaborative partnership between the NHS and the University of Leicester.

The last decade has seen significant advances in treatments for type 2 diabetes. But the long-term impact of these advances is not yet fully appreciated. The overarching aim of this research project is to develop a deeper understanding of the:

• risks associated with a diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 diabetes
• impact of recent improved treatments.

Specifically, the research sets out to:

• gain insights from data by considering advanced data analytic techniques to understand relative risk factors
• produce mortality and morbidity rates at a granular level for lives with and without diabetes (inclusive of all age ranges)

This session will be of interest to (re)insurers who write protection and longevity business.

Speakers: Scott Reid, Zurich and Dr Bogdan Grechuk, University of Leicester

In this talk, we discuss how the maturity of this market has led to insurers and actuaries playing a greater role in the creation of attractive structured assets for a variety of purposes. We will cover several different angles including:

• how the process of creating publicly rated MA eligible structures can differ from internal structures but can appeal to a variety of investors
• how insurers and investment firms are reassessing what assets may be appropriate for structuring to include in insurers portfolios, beyond LTMs

We will also consider the key risks when creating and managing these assets and how investors can successfully manage these.

Speakers: Richard Wilson and Andrew Rice, EY

HM Treasury published its ‘Review of Solvency II: consultation response’ in November 2022. It sets out the government’s final reform package and the plans for implementing changes to the UK’s prudential regime for insurers. The overarching methodology of the fundamental spread (FS) calibration will remain largely unchanged. But there is a new requirement for firms to attest that the FS covers all retained risks.

In this presentation we will consider:

• what MA attestation means
• some of the challenges firms and senior managers may face
• how firms might tackle attestation
• practical considerations for firms
• any relevant government and PRA announcements issued over H2 2023

This talk is aimed at anyone who is interested in the potential impacts of Solvency UK on life insurers and has a working understanding of the FS and MA.

Speakers: James Kay and Andrew James, PwC

Brexit provided the UK with a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reform its regulations to better suit the UK economy. As a result, the last 2 years have seen copious regulatory change. The Financial Services and Markets Bill has led the way for the Edinburgh and Mansion House Reforms as well as the much anticipated reforms to Solvency II.

Against the backdrop of an aging population, a volatile macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, and widening pension and insurance gaps, this session will take a step back from the detail to examine the whole regulatory landscape for pensions and insurers through a consumer lens. Starting from regulatory objectives, it will explore system-wide structural issues to the consumer’s wallet.

In particular, the session will shine a light on the inter-generational and socio-economic differences in outcomes for consumers. It will examine the continuing trend away from guaranteed products and a lack of innovation in insurance products.

Looking to the future of the UK life and pensions market, the session will also question whether the reforms go far enough to remedy the challenges that consumers are facing, and not just the challenges of policymakers, regulators, and industry.

In the midst of detailed debates on immeasurable and abstract insurance jargon, have we lost sight of the consumer?

Speakers: Sarah O’Sullivan and Connar McBain, Phoenix Group

The UK bulk annuity market has grown vastly over the last few years, especially in the face of increases in interest rates over 2022. This session will give an overview of the market in the current economic environment, alongside the challenges faced.

Bigger: The UK bulk annuity market has grown beyond recognition since the 2016 advent of Solvency II. The speakers will cover a brief history of the market.

Stronger: Insurers’ balance sheets have become stronger, bolstered by experience over 2022, increasing firms’ abilities to deploy excess capital. So, who’s doing what in the market?

Faster: 2022 helped improve funding positions for several pension schemes, accelerating de-risking plans and leading to unprecedented demand for bulk annuities. What’s the reality, and who might be a ‘mega’ candidate?

Harder: Increasing the size of deals presents new challenges for premium deployment, hedging (at the limits of market liquidity), and liquidity risk management. The speakers will explore how these ‘diseconomies of scale’ present.

Capital availability, difficulties for new entrants to the market, and ‘problem’ assets in pension schemes all present headwinds, in addition to constraints on ‘human’ capital. The presentation will look at how firms and schemes have coped in the face of these challenges.

Speakers: Andrew Kenyon and Suanne Chong, NatWest Markets

As digital data becomes more available and accessible, life insurers are exploring how to use this alternative data to assess applicants. Risk assessment, which continuously evolves over time, now has the potential to move to the next level with the arrival of this alternative data ‒ which is usually easier to access and can enhance the underwriting journey.

This presentation will help attendees to learn how to tailor a framework of principles for any given risk assessment scenario using alternative data. It will explore different types of data that are being used globally such as wearable data, digital biomarkers, genetic data, and more.

To give attendees a feel of the real world, the speakers will look at alternative data through 5 real life case studies:

1. Augmenting traditional underwriting with wearable data
2. Using wearable data, specifically physical activity, for dynamic underwriting
3. Replacing selected clinical information with wearable data
4. Replacing the traditional underwriting approach with wearable data
5. Personalising the customer journey with wearable data

Across these scenarios, the session will give attendees guidance and an analysis on how to better triage opportunities and thereby being able to offer customers a better and more cost-effective insurance experience.

Speakers: Febby Mulewa and Doug Rix, Swiss Re

To holistically model the impact of climate change on future longevity, a careful consideration of both physical and socioeconomic factors is required. It is also instructive to use an empirical-based approach where possible as this helps with transparency and objectivity.

This session will discuss a methodology for quantifying both physical and socioeconomic impacts of different future climate scenarios in the UK. It will cover:

• physical representative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) and how certain combinations of these pathways fit together more consistently
• use of empirical data from the UK to model quantitative links between temperature and other socioeconomic variables against mortality along with the key modelling considerations
• sourcing of UK specific projections for physical and socioeconomic variables consistent with combined RCP and SSP scenarios
• discussion of the impacts of these scenarios and potential uses for these types of scenarios including risk management and TCFD reporting

By the end of the session, attendees should have an understanding of how UK-based data can feed into quantitative modelling of climate change on future UK mortality rates and its context in understanding longevity risk.

Speakers: Ragav Sawhney, Moody’s RMS

Lapse rate is one of the main key risk drivers for many life and health insurance contracts and a key assumption for many actuarial exercises such as pricing, reserving, ALM, and risk management. Despite being influenced by many factors such as duration, contract types and entry age, lapse rates modelling has been rather crude in practice.

The IFoA Actuarial Data Science Working Party would like to:

• share its findings on how different machine learning techniques can be applied to model lapse rates
• compare the performances of various machine learning techniques against more traditional approaches

The techniques the working party considered include: regression model, Bayesian mix, XGB, and Neural Network. It further demonstrates how explainable AI can be applied to explain model predictions and gain further insights into the driving forces of lapse rates. By comparing these new techniques against the current standard models, the working party assesses the benefits and challenges of adopting these new techniques.

The target audience would be pricing, reserving, and risk actuaries concerned with lapse assumptions and the factors driving lapses, and anyone interested in machine learning, XAI, and data science.

Speakers: Patricia Wang, Lloyd’s of London and Jennifer Loftus, Acorn Life

As more people with mental health problems share their symptoms and seek treatment, and as awareness of potential risk factors increases, doctors are now diagnosing mental illness more frequently.

In response to this trend, Munich Re undertook a review of its underwriting guidelines with the objective of increasing the boundaries of insurability and taking a more differentiated view of each applicant.

In this presentation Dr Laura Laprell will explain how the findings of Munich Re’s research will help insurers address both the complexity and increasing incidence of mental health disorders in all stages of the protection journey.

From this presentation the audience will understand the complexities of mental health disorders, including the typical and untypical combinations and correlations of mental health allowing more accurate pricing and the ability to offer cover to more people.

As a leading reinsurer, Munich Re challenged itself on how can it address the increasing frequency and complexity, while being able to maintain fair and risk-adequate underwriting guidelines. To answer these questions, experts at Munich Re have developed a holistic solution: the Mental Health Calculator.

Speaker: Dr Laura Laprell, Munich Re

The days of DB are waning: work for 40 years, take a nice lump sum, and receive an inflation linked income for life. Simple.

Consumers planning their retirement are increasingly reliant on their DC pensions to provide an income in retirement. Not so simple! The DC product landscape is developing with the help of legislation, regulation, and new products, both during accumulation and in retirement.

With this comes increased choice and complexity and without the right support mechanisms in place – for example knowledge, understanding, engagement, advice – it is not clear that a majority of consumers will make good decisions. But is there an alternative?

What consumers really want is an income for life. This session will:

• explore how other DC-centric countries are addressing these challenges
• consider how the insurance industry might play a part in repackaging existing products to make it easier for consumers to choose what they need

Speaker: Kris Black and Paul Mason, WTW

Pension wealth in the UK is £2.6 trillion, the fourth largest in the world. But UK institutional investors do not invest proportionately in the kinds of assets that spur economic growth and create long-term prosperity.

UK pension funds and insurers are less likely to invest in infrastructure, private equity, venture capital, and private credit than their international counterparts. This contributes in part to the UK’s weaker economic performance and to UK firms finding it hard to scale-up because of a lack of long-term funding options.

UK cities can be more productive, UK infrastructure can be competitive, and UK venture capital can grow more quickly.

The Mansion House Reforms include several changes proposed in the ‘Unleashing Capital’ report by British think-tank Policy Exchange, which aimed at increasing investment towards higher growth, illiquid assets, and venture capital. The talk will consider, in 3 stages:

• asset allocation of UK pension wealth relative to other developed nations
• developments in the UK across the regulatory environment, the structure of pension markets, the role of local government, and the role of national institutions
• regional investment in the UK and how these reforms impact the unequal growth and productivity experienced by different regions

Speaker: Kyle Audley, Phoenix Group

The life reinsurance market in Bermuda has grown significantly in recent years. According to an industry report published last year, Bermuda saw an 8% increase in the total market share of global L&A ceded reserves in 2021. This growth continues to be observed in 2022 with numerous large annuity transactions being announced between US entities and Bermuda reinsurers. With its regulatory framework attaining Solvency II equivalency and NAIC reciprocity, Bermuda is expected to continue seeing further growth in the near future within the capital intensive life insurance space.

In this session, experts from Deloitte Bermuda will provide a first-hand perspective of the life insurance market in Bermuda, covering topics such as:

• the wave of new entrants into the Bermudan market
• upcoming changes in Bermudan regulations
• other key priorities of the BMA
• industry outlook on the future prospects of Bermuda
• common reinsurance structures that are used within Bermuda

We will the look at the impact of all of this on both the local and international market, particularly on its impact on UK life insurers.

Speaker: Clayton Chuah and Ankit Baweja, Deloitte

The female hormone cycle is not a topic openly discussed or even considered. But by ignoring this natural process you could be hampering your company’s DEI agenda.

In this session, Adel Drew will present options for employees and employers to work more in sync with our natural cycles, hormonal or circadian, to allow for better work life balance and ultimately increased productivity and better health outcomes.

Additionally, there are implications for some female customers of life insurance products of not acknowledging hormones within the work we do and the absence of considering hormones within our healthcare systems. For example, a medical study found that cholesterol levels can fluctuate as much as 20% throughout the menstrual cycle. But Drew says she has never been asked by her doctors about her cycle when interpreting blood test results.

This talk is based on information from Drew’s personal health journey. It is about normalising the discussion around hormones and changing the narrative to focus on positive aspects and empowerment. Drew believes this topic is important for all cycling females, anyone who works with women, and anyone who has women they care about in their lives.

Speaker: Adel Drew, Milliman

Ever considered your data a bit flaky? Have you ever kneaded help building a data story? Do you ever hope to be part of the upper crust of data visualisation?

The information age has brought unparalleled analytical opportunity for those with the right tools. No more excuses for half-baked analyses. Actuaries now have access to unprecedented modelling power and efficiency through data analysis tools and visualisation software that can give you a (golden) edge.

Using examples and case studies, this session will cook up a discussion on:

• how to process data using the latest software and techniques
• how to make best use of data visualisation tools to extract data insights and tell engaging data stories

Key topics include:

• processing data: converting data into formats that can help with downstream use cases
• use of charts: identifying the right chart to use and avoiding common pitfalls to tell your data story clearly
• data wrangling and visualisation tools: exploring R, Power BI, and Python and which tools might be right in different circumstances

This presentation is designed for anyone interested in developing their data insights and communication skills or in understanding what software is available to enhance their analyses.

Speakers: Murray Lidgitt, Shahrukh Nawaz, and Kate Fry, Hymans Robertson

Building on the provocative session at last year’s Life Conference, this presentation will focus on how the industry has started to seize the opportunities that Consumer Duty presents in delivering better outcomes for customers and their providers, and the regulatory perspective on the industry’s actions.

Now that the new business deadline has passed, the focus has switched to legacy where the challenges are perceived to be greater.

The session will focus on activity being taken around fund and product rationalisation or policy enhancements to align with the work carried out for new business.

It will:

• look at the drivers for change
• explore how best to design such solutions to maximise the impact for business strategy
• look at managing risks associated with such activity including regulatory challenges
• use real or plausible synthetic case studies, including observations from what the FCA has observed to date, to bring the concepts to life

Consumer Duty is only just beginning.

Speakers: Trevor Fannin, Rosie Anssari-Benam, WTW and Andrew Ruddle, FCA

This presentation will discuss the closure of a with-profits fund that had reached its sunset clause. The issues to be covered include:

• interpretation of legal structure and ability (the instrument of transfer)
• features of the with-profits policies, and consideration of how products could be converted on closure
• measures used to assess the appropriateness of different conversion options
• how to distribute the estate across product types, and within each product
• provision of expenses, charge for risk capital, and risks being taken by receiving fund
• addressing difficult product features
• adjusting investment strategy and final adjustments
• governance and policyholder communications

Speakers: Scott Robinson, Zenith Actuarial and Ravi Dubey, One Family

The insurance industry is being reshaped by technological advances, societal shifts, and innovative business models. The advent of AI promises transformative impact on the industry.

Actuaries face several challenges in their day-to-day work, such as managing complex datasets, performing intricate calculations, and ensuring the accuracy and reliability of their models. AI offers a unique potential to address these challenges by providing tools that can assist actuaries in various tasks.

Using ChatGPT as an example, the speakers explain how AI can help remove some of the barriers to entry to using a programming language not part of the traditional skillset of an actuary. They carry a live demonstration of how a simple life model can be built into R language by harnessing the capabilities ChatGPT.

They explore how ChatGPT can help write codes that are concise, well documented, and easy to audit and communicate. The speakers aim to keep the session interactive and encourage audience participation.

The session also address some of the risks and challenges of using AI for assisting actuaries in their coding and modelling work. Finally, it will discuss the role of regulatory bodies and their efforts to establish guidelines for responsible use of AI for insurance.

Speakers: Aniketh Pittea and Shivang Arya, Grant Thornton

This session will discuss the importance of scenario analysis in considering the potential impacts of climate change for your business. The structure of the presentation is:

• why a scenario approach is important, and how to build a plausible ‘storytelling’ narrative as the basis for scenario development
• linkage to the recent IFoA publication ‘The Emperor’s New Climate Scenarios’
• how to move from qualitative to quantitative impacts
• case study showing example climate impacts on mortality and longevity: ‘What if plant-based diets were adopted to combat climate change?’ How a narrative approach can enhance C-suite understanding
• how developing this case study might look in a different territory

While the session will focus on climate risk and more specifically the potential impacts on mortality and longevity, the principles discussed in terms of building a narrative are relevant for other risks to insurers.

In terms of assumed knowledge level, a basic level of understanding of the potential impacts of climate change for life insurers will be required. While not targeted at any groups in particular, this session will be interesting for key strategic decision makers within firms.

Speaker: Sarah Campbell, WTW and Deepak Jobanputra, Vitality

In light of potentially ground-breaking advances in early cancer detection and the planned expansion of a UK screening programme for lung cancer detection, this session will discuss some of the complexities of modelling cancer staging and diagnoses over time, the effects of treatment, and mortality from cancer.

An implementation of a continuous-time model of cancer evolution will be presented along with an application of this model to colorectal and lung cancers, considering the impact on mortality and morbidity claims associated with changes in the rates of detection of cancers at different stages of cancer development, such as might be brought about by the introduction of new screening campaigns, considering both best-estimate and stressed scenarios.

This will be supplemented by medical views from a life insurance perspective on potential technologies to improve cancer screening and their effectiveness, supporting actuaries in assessing, for example, the effect on mortality of a planned new lung cancer screening programme.

Speakers: Richard Marshall, WTW and Dan Ryan, Just Group

The insurance industry is at an inflexion point. Expectations for experience are evolving at a rapid pace while financial confidence is falling across younger generations. The lifetime and financial needs of today’s customers presents a challenge for most. People are living longer, with more flexibility needed at every life stage. How can insurers develop and adapt their market strategy to succeed in the long term?

The session will consider:

• what products are going to be important for tomorrow’s customers
• how insurers can develop the right products to meet customer needs throughout their life stages, enabled by the right technology and capabilities
• what experience tomorrow’s customers are expecting
• how insurers can identify and relate appropriately to their future customers, to build trust and long-standing relationships
• what support tomorrow’s customers will need
• different approaches to advice and guidance, and how insurers can develop suitable models to promote financial confidence and good outcomes

The session will include Strategy& (PwC’s insurance strategy experts) and customer transformation leads, with reflections from an industry participant (TBC).

Speakers: Ewen Tweedie, Jessica Lewis and James Cousins, PwC

The UK has followed a volatile inflationary path. First catalysed by the conflict in Ukraine, subsequent geopolitical shifts have highlighted the structural features of the UK economy that have manifested a prolonged period of inflationary pressure.

While other developed nations face similar challenges, the actions of central banks and world governments have led those countries down diverging paths.

This talk will journey through supply and demand shocks spanning spiking energy prices, record labour markets, global re-opening post COVID, and into a new era challenging trends in globalisation, onshoring production, and energy independence.

The UK faces further fiscal and political uncertainty with general elections in both the UK and US. Beyond short term uncertainty lie long-term drivers of inflationary (or deflation?) in the adoption of AI across industries disrupting traditional labour markets, and an increasingly ageing population changing the shape of demographics and demand.

What changes has the UK made and what further action is needed for the UK economy to be more resilient to these global shocks? The challenges the UK faces existed before in other developed nations. This talk will consider the response to these challenges, the outcome of their decisions, and its application in modern times.

Speakers: Kyle Audley and Anthony O’Brien, Phoenix Group

This presentation will address key questions regarding the Dutch PRT market, such as:

1. What is the current status of Dutch pensions reform? What does the future of pensions look like in the Netherlands?
2. What is the scale of the opportunity in the Netherlands? What market activity have we seen to date? And what developments might we expect to see over the next 5 years?
3. How does the Netherlands PRT market compare to that of other markets (UK, US, Canada)? And what lessons can be learned from these?
4. When will the longevity reinsurance market gain traction in Netherlands? What transaction structures may we see?
5. What is the regulator’s view on market developments?
6. How are inflation options determined? Standardised versus funding affordability?

This promises to be an engaging, topical, and interesting discussion, led by 2 experienced industry practitioners based in the UK and Netherlands. They are currently supporting insurance and reinsurance clients with an interest in the Netherlands PRT market.

No prior knowledge is required but an interest in PRT markets is useful.

Speakers: Dan Diggins, Hymans Robertson and Jeroen Bogers, Sprenkels

After-dinner entertainment

Test your pop music knowledge with Mystery Mixtape, a quirky and totally unique show sitting somewhere between a live gig and a classy pub quiz.

Drawing on a wide range of genres, eras, and tastes there is something for everyone.

Think you can spot the intro to a famous song? Or a missing lyric? What about a film theme tune when played passionately on a kazoo? This is your chance to shine.

IFoA President Kalpana Shah and CEO Ben Kemp will be at the Life Conference providing an update to delegates on what’s happening at the IFoA including governance reforms.

For members who would like to hear more about the governance reforms and share your views, Kalpana and Ben will be joined by Immediate Past President Matt Saker to host a session on Friday 24 November at 09:00 in Hall 9.

Learn more about the governance reforms

This will be a moderated panel session with four participants: a trustee or advisor, a BPA provider, a reinsurer, and an investment manager. It will consider:

• what schemes need to have or do to be buy-out ready?
• what factors are important to trustees: service, financial strength, flexibility?
• will reinsurance be less attractive with falling risk margins and regulatory change in Bermuda?
• how will Solvency II reform impact the market?
• how do you manage the transfer of assets through the value chain and what is the path for the most illiquid assets?
• how will market dynamics develop with more schemes in a position to buy-out?

Speaker: Andrew James, PwC

Global obesity is a pandemic that has only been getting worse over the past 2 decades. In fact, no country in the world has improved their obese percentage during the past 15 years. This is having a strong impact across all our life insurance products: poor underwriting assessments, less standard risks in underwriting, worsening mortality, a challenging critical illness portfolio, and a poor return to work on disability income.

This presentation in partnership with others will explore:

• the challenges of correctly assessing a person’s underwriting BMI risk, which is coupled with the concept of fat shaming
• the worsening mortality both in adults and in children and future BMI projections
• how the medical landscape deals with obesity and the lack of focus and support
• claims and pricing deep dive into how our base premium rates need to be reviewed for the current obesity trend
• looking at the correlation between underwriting and pricing and how this is strongly impacting current pricing values
• creating a digital future underwriting framework coupled with product innovation to drive better pools of risks
• how we should innovate on disability income products to reduce BMI pre-claim and help people get back to work post-claim

Speakers: John Schoonbee, Debbie Smith, and Stephanie McCahon, Swiss Re

Cancer is a major driver for mortality and disability in Europe. The incidence of certain cancers is increasing in younger persons, which makes cancer a relevant disease for the insurance industry. With right to be forgotten (RTBF) regulations being in place in several European countries, there is an ongoing debate whether RTBF could lead to long-term changes in portfolio mix and best estimates.

The majority of RTBF regulations concern for life cover for mortgages but EU member states are widening the scope of RTBF by reducing time frames, extending product ranges, and including other diseases.

Dr Mathias Orban will explain the impact a RTBF could have when one or more of these 3 levers are pulled. He will present the range of number of persons affected by RTBF in the UK, and which factors could influence the impact of RTBF. He will present concrete scenarios for different constellations of the decisive factors.

The audience will learn how the impact of a RTBF can vary depending on scope of the agreement and which factors contribute to this impact.

Speaker: Dr Mathias Orban, Munich Re

This session from Hymans Robertson will begin by taking a look back at 2022, setting out backward-looking data analysis of inflation indices and what RPI/CPI/LPI swap markets told us about future inflation.

It will then deep-dive on LPI swap prices, comparing market-implied LPI spreads to judgement/model-based LPI spreads to determine the premium that investment banks are charging for LPI-linked instruments (which insurers frequently tell Hymans Robertson are over-priced and make hedging expensive).

The speakers will then explore some wider challenges for insurers, drawing on insights from Hymans Robertson’s annual inflation survey, which includes all UK BPA writers. This will include assessing how well inflation models performed over 2022 and discussing what makes inflation hedging so difficult (for example price, modelling capabilities, lack of available assets, model limitations, data limitations).

The session will finish by looking forward, discussing the latest BoE inflation reports, and the effectiveness of policy response. The speakers will discuss possible new challenges when inflation does start to reduce, and when that might be expected to happen.

Speakers: Matthew Thomson and Iain Macintyre, Hymans Robertson

This session will provide an overview of recent outputs from the CMI. The CMI expects to cover:

• the Mortality Projection Committee’s mortality monitoring, including the analysis of international excess
• the CMI Model, including the census impact and the benchmarking of its use
• analyses from our insurance investigations, including a rated lives analysis from the Assurances Committee and an update on the analysis of income protection business

Speaker: Jamie Funnell, PIC

Findings and recommendations from flagship IFoA climate change paper produced with Exeter University, covering use of actuarial principles to show several key factors:

Many current climate change scenario models are understating risk, showing benign or even positive economic impacts from a hot house world in which we fail to limit global warming

There is considerable uncertainty around how much and how quickly we expect the climate to warm – we may have seriously underestimated the pace of climate change.

This translates to uncertainty in carbon budgets, with a real chance that the carbon budgets for 1.5°C of warming are now negative.

It is important that users of scenario analysis in financial services understand these limitations and assumptions, create more realistic models and craft detailed qualitative scenarios.

All of this reinforces the need to race to zero – with an intentional focus on accelerating a range of tipping points in socio-economic systems that we can control.

The paper shows a new approach based on reverse stress testing which would imply serious negative GDP impacts between 2°C and 3°C degrees of warming.

Speakers: Sandy Trust, M&G and Lucy Saye, Deloitte, Chair of the IFoA Sustainability Board and member of the Economics Member Interest Group

The data science domain continues to grow at pace. 2023 has seen a massive focus on AI and the risks and opportunities vying for attention. Actuaries continue to play an important role in the development and use of emerging techniques and, critically, how ethics are applied to the many problems that could be solved across a range of industries.

This session will consider the regulatory landscape under which actuaries work and how that might develop in the future, with a focus on ethical outcomes.

Learn about other regulatory developments including key changes that have been brought in under the revised Disciplinary Scheme (effective from 1 August 2023) and consequent changes to the Actuaries’ Code.

Do you know what types of behaviour might constitute misconduct? Do you know what sort of matters you need to report to the IFoA?

Speakers: Alan Marshall and Jenny Higgins, IFoA, and Jane Hamilton, M&G

In June 2019 I broke down in tears at a management team offsite.

This started my journey of discovery with my depression and anxiety and led me to mental health advocacy.

Taking care of mental health and wellbeing at work can feel overwhelming and hard to know where to start. The pandemic and subsequent huge changes to working practices have introduced new challenges and opportunities. It’s a topic that’s important for all of us, not just for HR.

In this session I’ll share my personal mental health story, what I'm learning and action we can take to create mentally healthier workplaces that enable our people (and businesses) to thrive, including:

• the power of sharing stories and experiences
• the importance of vulnerability and empathy in leadership
• the need for cross-industry conversations, challenging assumptions and working practices

This talk will include practical examples to highlight the action we can each take to prioritise the wellbeing of ourselves and our teams and will include time for discussion on this important topic.

Speaker: Andy McAleese, Pacific Life Re

After 25 years in the making, IFRS 17 is now live. The Financial Reporting Group of the IFoA will provide an update and insights on the first substantive reporting under IFRS 17 at interim 2023 and expectations for full year 2023 reporting. The group will also consider the future of financial reporting for insurers. This will be followed by an interactive panel discussion between a preparer, auditor, and analyst to share their experiences of IFRS 17 to date.

Presenters: Anthony Coughlan, PwC, Kamran Foroughi, WTW, Richard Olswang, Prudential, and Tony Silverman, AM Best

This session provides insights into climate risk research for corporate and sovereign bonds, as well as practical application of a climate transition framework on corporate balance sheets and the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), Assessing Sovereign Climate-Related Opportunities and Risks (ASCOR) framework for sovereign bonds to aid implementation in investor’s portfolios.

The key outcomes of the session and knowledge attendees will take away, includes the following:

Can life insurers make an impact on climate through their bond portfolio and what are their tools for engagement?

• A deep dive into the assessment of the climate risk and opportunity of an individual security, through fundamental analysis of corporate balance sheets
• Sovereign bond climate analysis: case study UK versus US and application of the ASCOR framework
• Metrics and engagement, analysis of carbon intensity versus investable universe and assessment of pros and cons of exclusionary approaches such as Paris-aligned benchmarks

The session will have an emphasis on sharing granular and technical insights from a team of experienced professionals. We are keen for thoughts and questions from the audience.

Speakers: Chris Burrows, CFA, Catherine McLaughlin, CFA, CAIA, and Nambassa Nakatudde, CFA, Allspring Global Investments

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about new challenges in predicting future mortality rates. Modelling the direct impact of COVID-19 deaths on mortality could be considered a relatively simple concept, when compared to the challenge of capturing more complex direct and indirect effects. Various factors, such as a strained healthcare system, economic stress, behavioural changes, and the long-term health consequences of the pandemic (for example, long-COVID), have created multiple pathways that affect the burden of disease.

Through excavating the cause-of-death mortality data we can unearth the impact of the pandemic across key diseases and triangulate this with existing research to understand the underlying driver. Employing a multidisciplinary framework, it is possible to estimate the long-term evolution of these drivers.

In this presentation the speakers will share the outcomes of their research on excavating the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality. They will also reveal the results of our modelling efforts, aiming to provide actuaries with a practical framework for estimating the lasting consequences of the pandemic on mortality rates.

Speakers: Ashley Campbell and Chris Martin, Crystallise

This session will explore the impact on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) during this period of regulatory changes and economic uncertainty. The proposed structure of the presentation is to:

• provide background as to what drives M&As in the life insurance sector
• provide an update on recent M&A activity within the UK and more widely across EMEA
• explain the most common valuation approaches used within the life insurance sector such as Traditional Embedded Value and Operating Capital Generation, exploring various adjustments that may be applied relative to reported Solvency II Own Funds
• discuss how regulatory changes such as the implementation of IFRS 17 and Solvency II reforms in the UK may impact on future transactions
• discuss the potential implications of the current economic uncertainty on M&As for example choice of assumptions such as inflation and risk discount rates

Speakers: Lewis Petcher and Daragh McHugh, WTW

Preventive health care is the stuff you do (before you get sick) to stay healthy. Digital health aims to boost our health and wellbeing. It is no surprise that these 2 topics go hand in hand. With the development and deployment of digital technologies in healthcare, we can more easily achieve the holy grail of medicine: prevention. Firms are increasingly under pressure to embed preventive and digital health solutions. Consumers are wanting a health partner rather than being a claim paying instrument. But the question still remains unanswered: are we doing enough to cater to consumer demands?

In this session the panel will debate the importance of preventive health and highlight key considerations for insurers around preventive and digital care. The panel will also consider:

• why early care is important
• the impact of preventive care on overall healthcare and the challenges it brings
• the role of digital health in prevention and how insurers can truly become leaders in this space

This will be a high-level interactive live session rather than a technical one. It should be of interest to actuaries of all levels with an interest in healthcare, including senior actuaries and team leaders who are responsible for healthcare.

Chair: Dharshini Navaratnam, Consultant, Hymans Robertson

Panellists:

• Lisa Balboa, Head of Life & Health Digital Business Accelerator, Hannover Re
• Jag Sodhi, Chief Actuary, Global Benefits Group
• Natanya Taylor, Head of Property & Casualty Retail Business, Hymans Robertson
• Dr Tarun Gupta, Chief Medical Officer, Legal & General

Digital twins and quantum computing are revolutionising the life insurance industry by enhancing risk assessment, improving customer experience, and optimising operational efficiency.

Digital twins, virtual replicas of physical assets, are being used to model policyholders’ health conditions, enabling insurers to assess risks more accurately. By collecting real-time data from wearable devices and health monitoring systems, insurers can create dynamic digital twin models that provide insights into individuals’ health and predict potential risks. This allows insurers to personalise policies and offer more accurate premiums, resulting in a fairer and more efficient underwriting process.

In life insurance, quantum algorithms can be used to optimise risk modelling and portfolio management. Quantum simulations can analyse vast amounts of data, identifying patterns and correlations that were previously undetectable. This enables insurers to make better-informed decisions, minimise risk exposure, and improve investment strategies.

Combining digital twins and quantum computing, insurers can create advanced predictive models that consider an individual’s digital twin and leverage quantum algorithms for real-time risk assessment. This not only streamlines the underwriting process but also enhances customer experience by offering personalised policies and quicker claim settlements based on accurate risk evaluation.

Speaker: Neha Agarwal, AInsurCo and David Basson, NTT Data

Hearing from a range of voices, this panel session will discuss current hot topics in with-profits. Given the diversity of experiences and backgrounds of the panel, including actuaries and non-actuaries, we anticipate a lively discussion giving insights and ideas helpful for managing with-profits funds into the future.

Key topics that may be discussed include:

• managing fund run-off and sunset clauses
• investment strategy including ESG approaches and climate disclosures
• succession planning including DE&I
• process improvement and simplification
• new business challenges including product innovation
• consumer duty and customer engagement

The panel will be chaired by Sarah Clarke (Senior Manager at EY), with panellists including:

• Louise Eldred (currently member of the With-Profits Committee at LBG and member of the Independent Governance Committee at Royal London, previously With-Profits Actuary at Utmost and Equitable Life)
• Brian Murray (currently Chief With-Profits Actuary at Phoenix, previously With-Profits Actuary at Royal London)
• Sandy Trust (specialist in sustainable finance, currently Head of Organisational Risk at M&G and Chair of the Sustainability Board)
• Louise Pattullo (Manager at EY)
• Matt Cuhls (Non-Executive Director, former CEO and CRO with regulated experience within financial services in the UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands)

Many UK insurers now have to produce recovery and resolution (R&R) plans, both for their boards and for the UK regulators. The current volatile and uncertain state of the financial markets and indicators makes these plans highly relevant right now.

This presentation will commence with the general requirements for R&R plans, how they link in with the current Solvency II rules, and the emerging regulatory developments in this area, both in the UK and globally.

The speakers will then cover a case study on how NFU Mutual approached this task, the issues it faced, and the solutions adopted. The case study will cover:

• the cross-over from recovery into resolution
• the base and optional resolution solutions adopted (both for NFU Mutual’s life business and its non-life business)
• how the work in producing and reviewing the plan was divided between NFU Mutual itself and Milliman as advisers and providers of support

Attendees will gain a good understanding of recovery and resolution plans and the key approaches and issues arising in this case.

Speakers: John Jenkins and Tatiana Egoshina, Milliman and Andrew Hague, NFU Mutual

This panel discussion will explore key issues and challenges in AI risk management from an actuarial perspective based on discussions and outcomes from a transregional industry focus group.

The session will define the gaps and challenges faced when it comes to implementing and using modern modelling techniques from a risk-perspective, in the context of regulation. They will also discuss best practice guidelines and how to take a practical approach to AI risk management.

Practical outcomes include:

• an overview of key issues related to data science and AI regulation and risk management from an actuarial perspective
• industry examples of the key modelling issues in practice in traditional and non-traditional actuarial work
• best practice guidelines for data science and AI risk management
• practical tips for data science and AI risk management

This discussion is aimed at participants who are looking to implement AI or data science within their functions or looking to improve their risk management in these domains. No prior technical knowledge on the topic is required.

Research findings from the working group is available on request at info@actuartech.com. Comments on the panel discussion are invited either before or during the session.

Speakers:

• Valerie duPreez, Dupro Advisory Actuartech
• Richard Galbraith, Canada Life
• Charles Cowling, Mercer
• Perry Thomas, Chair of the AI Ethics Working Party
• Kalpana Shah, IFoA President-elect

This presentation will provide an in-depth analysis of microinsurance development in Africa, focusing on the unique challenges and opportunities faced by the continent.

The presenters will discuss the socioeconomic context, success stories, challenges, regulatory environment, technology, and future outlook of microinsurance in Africa.

Through a comprehensive review of existing literature, case studies, and expert insights given the presenters’ experience as actuaries in this niche area, they seek to contribute to a deeper understanding of microinsurance’s role in promoting financial inclusion and mitigating risks in Africa.

This international perspective is particularly critical given the low insurance penetration rates in the continent and the role that the growing field of inclusive insurance will play in ensuring this is increased.

Speakers: Alvin Ngugi and Melusi Baloyi, Kedari Advisory

The November 2022 publication of the HM Treasury response to the Solvency II reform consultation brought us one step closer to clarity on future of UK prudential regulation, with several specifics to be worked through.

A year on, this talk explores the developments to date and the potential implications of the reforms for the UK bulk purchase annuity market.

In early 2023, subject expert groups between PRA and industry considered key topics such as matching adjustment attestation, notching, and investment flexibility. HM Treasury published draft statutory instruments including details on the proposed calibration for the risk margin. These activities have been complemented by an initial June consultation from the PRA covering areas such as transitional measures, internal model applications, and capital add-ons, with further consultation expected in September.

The talk is expected to:

• summarise key developments over 2023, ensuring up-to-date knowledge on the SUK reforms, to allow delegates to develop a good understanding of likely future regulatory regime
• provide views on the potential impact of developments to encourage discussion and further reflection among delegates.
• explore potential next steps and any areas of uncertainty to enable delegates to form opinions on how their work may be impacted

Speakers: Anthony Plotnek and Ed Hawkins, WTW; Kenneth McIvor, The Phoenix Group

Behavioural economics studies indicate that cognitive biases and inconsistencies undermine the quality of expert judgement. To mitigate these sources of error in judgement, several methodologies, including ‘estimate-talk-estimate’ (based on the widely recognised Delphi approach), have been shown to enhance forecasting accuracy. But thus far applications to insurance problems have been limited.

In response, Swiss Re has developed a custom digital tool to enable actuaries to consistently apply good practices for judgement in key reinsurance assumptions setting. Furthermore, the company evaluates and learns from the resulting data asset, leveraging performance data, online surveys and experiments, and sentiment analysis to assess the prevalence of cognitive biases and noise in key costing and reserving activities.

As a result, Swiss Re achieved substantial improvements in forecasting accuracy in a pre-post analysis (>10%) when applying its toolkit for a variety of forecasts. This structured approach allowed individuals to better navigate individual and group cognitive biases and reduce noise. Swiss Re also evaluated strategies for achieving greater scalability of these approaches, through infusion into existing processes, adoption of a custom-built digital tool for high-stakes forecasts, and learning and development initiatives, including forecasting competitions.

Speaker: Maura Fedderson, Swiss Re

Over recent years, liquidity has become more important and impactful, particularly due to the steady growth seen in long-term insurance, with increasing investment in long-term illiquid assets, alongside derivatives used to hedge non-sterling non-corporate exposures and inflation risks stemming from BPA liabilities.

There has been an unprecedented crisis (COVID-19) and market volatility (‘mini-budget’) in the last 3 years or so. At the same time, both insurance and pension industries have seen an increased regulatory focus: Supervisory Statement 5/19 and recent Bank of England speeches and announcement of a financial system-wide exploratory scenario exercise, and Financial Policy Committee recommendations to pension funds post the ‘mini-budget’ crisis.

This presentation will commence with market background to illustrate recent crises and market volatility. It will then give a high-level overview of current regulatory framework, followed by what ‘good liquidity risk management framework’ looks like. It will also compare a liquidity framework with a typical capital framework.

The session will conclude with a case study on Just Group’s approach to manage liquidity risk and lessons learnt over this volatile period.

Speaker: Florin Ginghina, Milliman and Shuoshen Zhang, Just Group

If the exam question from the regulator is ‘What are your climate strategy, actions and associated targets?’, the answer is the TCFD.

If the exam question is ‘How will you implement your climate strategy?’, the answer is the ‘transition plan’. A transition plan answers the question: ‘How will your firm implement its climate strategy?’ This moves beyond broad statements of intent, lists of short-term actions, and the point-in-time reporting frequently seen in TCFD-aligned disclosures.

This talk will introduce the scope of transition plans and the benefits to life insurers of disclosing credible paths to meeting their climate ambitions, for example:

• driving internal alignment on a firm’s overriding strategy, allowing for the full suite of available actions
• addressing key commercial, legal, and upcoming regulatory imperatives relating to their climate commitments

A deeper understanding of transition pathways will be key, including understanding sectoral transition pathways and the transition plans of investees. Engagement with all material stakeholders will also be crucial for insurers to support businesses with their decarbonisation journeys. This session will therefore also discuss projected funded emissions and how understanding the gaps between targets and performance can help shape climate actions and engagement.

Speakers: Kabari Bhattacharya and Ruth Bryson, EY and Andrew Kitchen, Royal London

Pandemic modelling and its impact on the insurance and reinsurance business has been the subject of scrutiny during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. As the WHO has declared its end as a global health emergency, the next focus of insurers and reinsurers turns to the possibility of future pandemics.

Key to considering possible future pandemics is assessing what is needed to model pandemic risks. This presentation will focus on:

• the main principles around creating a well-established pandemic risk modelling framework, what they are, and how you should build them into your model
• a review of pandemic risk modelling strategies as well as understanding the inherent uncertainties to pandemic events
• the lessons learned from COVID-19 and how we can use them in order toto possibility of future pandemics
• the link between future pandemic risk and the capital requirements

Speakers: Sameet Shah and Daniel Meier, Swiss Re

Under IFRS17, there are considerable changes to the way reinsurance arrangements will be reported in insurers’ financial statements, compared to under IFRS 4. In particular, reporting and disclosure requirements have become more granular, and there are additional considerations under IFRS 17 such as loss offsetting for new onerous (underlying) contracts only being possible if the reinsurance is in place when the underlying business is written. These result in new data and systems requirements to support the increased granularity of reporting, and changes to how reinsurance is placed.

The speakers’ case study will bring out the implementation issues emerging from data, systems and methodology challenges for the reinsurance solution, and the way forward based on their learnings and experience. They will present 2 perspectives to this: Ashik will cover data and systems and Mike will bring the technical and methodology aspects to this implementation journey for Aviva.

No advance knowledge of IFRS17 requirements will be required for this session. Basic IFRS17 understanding will be sufficient.

Speaker: Ashik Salecha, KPMG and Mike Reid, Aviva

The true burden of Alzheimer’s disease and other causes of dementia is difficult to estimate as diagnostic tools used are underdeveloped and underutilised, and death certifications are subject to bias. In 2022, aducanumab and lecanemab were the first treatments shown to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease and there are further innovative treatments in the pipeline.

With these recent advancements and the uncertainty in the underlying cause-of-death data, dementia should be top of mind for insurers and pension scheme holding longevity risk.

This presentation will demonstrate the uncertainty in estimating the true burden of disease, and how this impacts the cause-of-death mortality data. It will also examine how this differs by age and socioeconomic groups. It will provide insights into what the recent drug approvals really mean for mortality and longevity risk, looking at the drug pipeline, time horizon, and potential impact of key technologies in focus such as monoclonal antibodies.

Speaker: Ashley Campbell and Chris Martin, Crystallise

This dynamic presentation demystifies the intricate process of creating matching adjustment portfolios for insurers within the UK pension risk transfer market. Ideal for both industry newcomers and seasoned professionals, a novel optimisation methodology is introduced that uniquely combines strategic asset allocation and bottom-up security selection. The result is a blueprint for constructing diversified, optimally efficient matching adjustment portfolios that satisfy the usual constraints for portfolio management while being truly optimal in maximising the regulatory benefit of the matching adjustment.

By accessing the full spectrum of core and extended global fixed income markets, the speakers demonstrate how to deliver competitive levels of matching adjustment through public markets which reduces reliance on scarce private assets. This is helpful in supporting bulk annuity writers during this period of unparalleled growth of the pension risk transfer market.

Finally, the session will provide insights into the forthcoming changes to UK Solvency II being spearheaded by the UK government, which will be essential to support the growing demands of the pension risk transfer on UK bulk annuity.

Attendees can look forward to unlocking the potential of matching adjustment portfolio construction in this engaging and informative session.

Speaker: Gareth Haslip, JP Morgan Asset Management

Rich data streams flooding the market are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore for underwriting and pricing teams – especially when combined with advanced analytics and AI.

These innovations cannot, and will not, exist in isolation. On their own they add nothing to insurance value chains. Such innovations only flourish when they engage, integrate, and are adopted by those they are designed for.

Fairness in the implementation of such technologies is crucial. Much has been said about theoretical unfairness with these technologies. Even more muttered about are the regulatory pressures which can (and will) be installed to protect consumers, but are little explored from the consumer point of view.

This session explores original new research into fairness, including:

• how do consumers balance differing elements of fairness?
• should riskier people pay more?
• is it important that all who need to access insurance are covered?
• what does pooling look like in the world of personalisation?

It is not good enough to wait for the regulator to move first, especially in the world of Consumer Duty. We have the data to help shape the fairness debate in life underwriting and pricing. Thid can enable actuaries to incorporate consumer attitudes and beliefs into future product designs, pricing systems, and propositions.

Speaker: James Lovett, Lovethorn and Richard Purcell, Pacific Life Re

On 28 September 2023 the PRA published CP19/23: Review of Solvency II: Reform of the Matching Adjustment. This is the second in a series of consultation papers to implement HM Treasury’s November 2022 response to its Solvency II consultation.

In this session the Prudential Regulation Authority, part of the Bank of England, will provide an overview of the wide ranging proposed reforms, including to investment flexibility, attestation of the matching adjustment, and liability eligibility.

Speakers: Adam Jorna, Brenda Harris, Anu Ralhan, Henrietta Tait, Bank of England

Chair: Matt Saker, Immediate Past President of the IFoA