The (re)insurance industry is maturing in its ability to measure and quantity cyber risk. The risk and threat landscapes around cyber continue to evolve, in some cases rapidly. The threat actor environment can change, as well as the exposure base, depending on a variety of external factors such as political, economic, and technological factors.
The rapidly changing environment poses interesting challenges for the risk and capital actuaries across the market. The ability to accurately reflect all sources of material losses from cyber events is challenging for capital models and the validation exercise. Furthermore, having a robust Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework supporting the business to evaluate cyber risk is an important consideration to give the board comfort that cyber risk is being effectively understood and managed by the business.
This paper discusses cyber risk in relation to important risk and capital model topics that actuaries should be considering. It is challenging for the capital models to model this rapidly changing risk in a proportionate way that can be communicated to stakeholders. As model vendors continue to mature and update models, the validation of these models and the ultimate cyber capital allocation is even more complex. One’s view of risk could change rapidly from year to year, depending on the threat or exposure landscape as demonstrated by the ransomware trends in recent years.
This paper has been prepared primarily with general insurers in mind. However, the broader aspects of capital modelling, dependencies, and ERM framework are relevant to all disciplines of the profession.
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Download and read the associated paper 'Cyber Risk within Capital Models' (PDF, 890 KB)
Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltd
Simon Cartagena is the Chief Risk Officer of Cincinnati Global Underwriting Ltd. Simon is a fully qualified and experienced actuary who has worked in a variety of actuarial roles. Simon has worked predominantly within the London Market at both consultancies and within company roles.
Simon has specialised in Risk and Capital with an interest in cyber risk and has multiple publications, presenting regularly at industry events. Simon has been actively involved with multiple working parties and is a member of the IFoA’s Risk Management Board.
WTW
Jasvir Grewal is the Head of Data & Analytics of the Global Facultative Broking department at WTW. She is an experienced actuary by profession who has worked at a number of syndicates holding a wide range of roles. She has a good mix of commercial and technical skills with experience across all actuarial departments but now also most non-actuarial business functions as well. In particular, she has a strong background in capital modelling. She holds a first class honours from the University of Warwick in Mathematics and a master’s distinction from the University of Oxford in Mathematical Modelling and Scientific Computing. In addition, she is a fully qualified actuary with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), holds the Chartered Enterprise Risk Actuary designation as well as various data science certifications. Jasvir is also actively involved with research and has been a member of multiple working parties, has been a member of the IFoA’s Risk Management Board, has multiple publications and presents regularly at industry events.
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