Mon 26 Jan 2026 - A flagship sessional research meeting on the criticality of including biodiversity in climate scenarios.
The prospect of a 2.5°C world grows and the impact of a world that is already passing 1.5°C is being felt. Coral reefs have passed their extinction tipping point. Iceland has declared the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as a national security threat.
However, the financial and humanitarian impacts of biodiversity loss both rival and exacerbate those of climate change. While using climate scenarios and models to assess impacts has become actuarial standard practice, a lack of integration with biodiversity risks means these are systematically and structurally incomplete.
The IFoA’s Biodiversity Scenarios Working Party has completed a landmark workshop reviewing the importance and availability of biodiversity scenario frameworks. The conclusion is stark: climate scenarios that ignore biodiversity dynamics are not fit for purpose.
The working party, supported by leading academics, will host a panel to introduce their paper ‘Nature at risk, models at fault: Why biodiversity can't wait’. The panel will outline the three realities underpinning their conclusions: equivalence of scale, intrinsic climate-biodiversity linkages, and fundamental impact on future economy and macroeconomic impacts to financial institutions.
The working party looks forward to an engaging sessional meeting discussion on the paper, recognising that integrating biodiversity risks is challenging, complex, and necessary. It particularly welcomes discussion on addressing the challenges and the ways forward for the profession, including on data and modelling, upskilling, and challenging existing practices and mindsets.
Dr Alvarez is based at the Environmental Change Institute (University of Oxford) where she leads the Global Finance & Economy Group's workstream on Greening Finance for Nature and the work on scenarios as part of the Oxford Martin School Programme on Systemic Resilience. She is a Lead Author on the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)’s Second Global Assessment Report and served as a contributing author to the Nexus Assessment on finance, an expert on the Nature Task Force of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) and an academic advisor to the Climate Financial Risk Forum.
Alvarez brings 20 years’ experience spanning strategy, scenario development, engineering, climate change, nature, modelling, economics and finance across academia, industry and nonprofit in Latin America, Europe and the United States. She started her career advising the C-suite in strategic corporate planning in an Italian-Argentine holding group. Her research skills comprise quantitative risk analysis, systems analysis and economic/financial analysis.
Alvarez holds a degree in Industrial Engineering (BEng and MEng equivalent) from the Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires, MPhil in Engineering for Sustainable Development from the University of Cambridge and a PhD in Management from Lancaster University.
Michael is an actuary with over 20 years’ experience in risk management and strategy in financial institutions, with a strong focus on commercial outcomes. He has worked with a wide range of stakeholders from both consulting and in-house perspectives.
Most recently his attentions have been focused on systemic risks, particularly climate and AI. He brings a unique perspective to these emerging areas, allowing him to help organisations make higher quality decisions and improve outcomes.
Michael contributes to the IFoA Sustainability board and global risk forums, where his insights are valued in the profession and beyond.
Nick Spencer, Biodiversity Scenarios Working Party
Nick Spencer boldly champions climate and sustainability resilience through a blend of system-wide risk and opportunity thinking and leading research. He has an innovative mindset that blends practical experience with technical expertise bringing 35 years’ industry and consulting experience to translate complex environmental and social challenges into pragmatic, actionable solutions for forward-thinking organisations.
An award-winning thought leader, Nick is a regular contributor to The Actuary, the IFoA Blog as well as writing for Milliman. He is a former Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ (IFoA) Council Member, a past Chair of its Sustainability Board and is a member of both the Climate Change Inequality Working Party and the Biodiversity Working Party.
Nick is an advocate for aligning the financial services industry with a broader societal purpose. He looks to drive change today by readying clients for the challenges of tomorrow.
| Members | Book for free |
| Non-members | Book for free |
Staple Inn
1-3 Staple Inn Hall
High Holborn
London
WC1V 7QH
This event will also be livestreamed.