4 July 2023
Scenario modelling is an important component of the actuarial risk-management toolkit. In the context of climate change, scenario modelling enables financial institutions and regulators to investigate the impact of different climate futures, which is important given the challenges we face.
The IFoA has partnered with the University of Exeter to produce this paper demonstrating how a deeper understanding of climate change, including tipping points can improve financial services climate- scenario modelling.
In the paper we use actuarial principles to examine the limitations and assumptions in relation to climate-change scenario modelling practices in financial services, focusing on hot-house world scenarios of 3˚C or more of warming. It demonstrates how current techniques exclude many of the most severe impacts we can expect from climate change, such as tipping points and second order impacts – they simply do not exist in the models meaning the models understate the level of risk.
Our objective in writing this paper is to help accelerate the progress of more realistic scenario modelling, which we in turn hope will help to further accelerate the progress on decarbonisation we need.