Black Swans Working Party – members

Application closing date: 30 March 

We are seeking to appoint both members and suitably experienced non-members to join the Black Swans Working Party. The group is specifically interested in hearing from academics who model extreme risks.

 

Background

As the Covid-19 pandemic has shown, our society faces a wide range of systemic disruptions. Large-scale terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure, extreme solar storms, cyber attacks, pandemics, climate change, and geopolitical risks to name a few. 

We face constant external threats that have the potential to reap catastrophic economic damage. Rare, systemic risks do not respect borders. They are likely to have an international impact and will require an international response.

When these disruptive events occur, they typically create similar widespread effects as they spread through multiple sectors of society. They harm human welfare, damage economies, disrupt essential services, and cause environmental destruction. They have behavioural impacts and undermine national security and international relations.

Systemic risk such as pandemics, solar storms, state sponsored geopolitical large-scale cyber-attacks, and climate catastrophes are not traditionally included in standard business interruption cover insurance. As seen during the pandemic, the uncertainty over different policy applicability to cover Covid-19’s associated risks has led to legal challenges for businesses trying to access pay-outs.

It is essential that risk assessment of rare events includes a mapping of the immediate and higher order linked, and cascading risks triggered by these events with a particular focus on the common consequences triggered by these risks. 

The overarching objective of the Black Swans Working Party is to be a source of knowledge and expertise within the IFoA on matters relating to systemic risk assessment and insurance. This will involve leveraging new insights from the theory of complexity science and rare events.

 

Strategic goals of the Black Swans Working Party

The roadmap to develop a framework for systemic risk assessment will be used to:

  • identify systemic, high impact risks that are considered improbable or unlikely events
  • develop a framework for risk assessment of rare, systematic risks that is dynamic and data driven  
  • develop robust methodologies for understanding, assessing, pricing, and modelling various systemic risks that have different characteristics, risk profiles, and modelling assumptions for frequency and severity
  • come up with a range of risk reflective pricing charged for these products to reflect a long-term systemic risk premium
  • explore risk sharing products that are affordable, available, and relevant, covering systemic events and considering:
    1. Type of product
    2. The limits of indemnity: whole loss or part of it?
    3. Is the product index, parametric, modelled loss, or some hybrid in between?
    4. Is it mandatory or optional?
    5. A systemic risk product that is designed to take behavioural aspects into consideration so that it incentives behaviour rather than making it compulsory to affect premium rates.

 

Who we’re looking for 

We’d welcome applicants from IFoA members or non-members with experience in: 

  • technical discussions and research into complex systems 
  • writing technical reports
  • general insurance and enterprise risk management

If you have a passion for the subject and the time to contribute, we would like to hear from you. This working party is comprised of a broad mix of skills. We’re looking for academics, general insurance experts, and capital market structuring and reserving expertise.

 

Time commitment

Usually, volunteers are asked to participate in 6 to 12 meetings per annum (lasting around one to one and a half hours) plus time for preparation and post-meeting research and follow up actions.

There is no requirement to meet in person. Meetings will be by conference call to allow us to widen this opportunity to all members. Conference calls will be arranged at a mutually convenient time for all involved.

 

Next steps

If you are interested in this role and would like an informal conversation before applying, please email us at engagement.team@actuaries.org.uk.

If you have read all the above and would like to apply, please send us:

  • brief details of your relevant experience
  • your reasons for wishing to get involved
  • your ARN (if you are a member)
  • a brief copy of your CV and full contact details (if you are a non-member)
  • confirmation that you have read, understood, and agree to the information and requirements laid out in our volunteer information pack (please be aware that until we have received this confirmation, we will not be able to appoint you as a volunteer)

Please email all the above to engagement.team@actuaries.org.uk. Please note, we are unable to accept late applications.

We are committed to promoting diversity, equality of opportunity, and inclusion, within all our vacancies and we actively encourage applications from a diverse range of potential candidates. Recognising and embracing the unique and diverse talents of our volunteers is fundamental to the success of our organisation.

 

What you need to know

Volunteering provides you with a wide range of opportunities. With all rights and opportunities come responsibilities and we ask all our volunteers to comply with the terms of the IFoA’s governance manual and volunteer information pack. Before offering to provide support, please read through: what you need to know.