My account

Record low winter mortality rates, says CMI

10 April 2026

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) publishes frequent mortality analysis for England & Wales through its mortality monitors. Today’s update covers death registrations to 27 March 2026. 

The key points are:    

  • Overall mortality rates in the first quarter of 2026 were lower than in any previous first quarter on record. 
  • There were around 23,600 deaths involving influenza or pneumonia registered in the first quarter of 2026, lower than the range of 26,800 to 31,500 seen in the first quarters of 2023 to 2025.
  • Deaths recorded in the first quarter as involving COVID-19 have broadly halved each year. There were around 600 deaths recorded as involving COVID-19 registered in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 7,700, 3,500 and 1,300 in the first quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Steve Bale FIA C.Act, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “Record low winter deaths mean that mortality rates in early 2026 are also correspondingly low. Lower flu and pneumonia deaths have contributed to overall mortality rates lower than we have ever seen at this time of year.” 

All mortality monitor updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

1. The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:

  • We publish a summary monitor monthly, every four or five weeks, without a press release. The next is planned for week 17 of 2026 on Wednesday 6 May 2026.
  • Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for the end of the second quarter of 2026, in July 2026. 

2. Death certification reforms were implemented on 9 September 2024:

  • Following the reforms, the five-day period for registering a death starts on the date that the registrar receives a signed medical certificate of cause of death from the medical examiner, or relevant notification from the coroner. 
  • Previously, deaths should legally have been registered within five days of the death occurring or the date on which a body was found (including weekends and bank holidays), unless a coroner was involved. 

 

Contact

Hannah Patmore, Communications Manager, IFoA  
Tel: 07519106714  
Email: hannah.patmore@actuaries.org.uk  

 

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

 

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries 

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.  

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial.  As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.   

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues. 

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London. 

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society. 

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.