Thu 23 Apr 2026 - This session will provide a holistic overview of recent loss development trends across US property and casualty lines of business, with a particular focus on how post-2017 structural shifts have affected the usability of recent data for actuarial analysis.
Drawing on ISO data and research, the presentation will examine the impacts of COVID-19, heightened inflation from 2021 onwards, and more recent changes in closure patterns and development factor lengthening.
The session will explore how these events have influenced claim frequency, severity, loss ratios, closure rates, and development patterns across selected commercial lines. Attendees will gain insight into how recent experience differs from historical norms and the implications this has for both ratemaking and reserving analyses.
Key takeaways include: A practical understanding of emerging loss development behaviours, considerations when selecting development assumptions, and approaches to incorporating recent experience into forward-looking models while managing uncertainty.
Target audience: General insurance actuaries and analysts involved in pricing, reserving, or capital modelling. A working knowledge of loss development techniques and standard actuarial methods is assumed.
Shani Clarke, Marni Novak, Hyun Jin Park, Taha Ahmad, Verisk/ISO