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CMI says recent mortality similar to pre-pandemic lows

10 April 2024

The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) publishes frequent mortality analysis for England & Wales through its mortality monitors. Today’s updates cover week 13 of 2024 (to 29 March 2024) and the first quarter of 2024, based on provisional England & Wales deaths data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 10 April 2024.

The key points are:

  • Mortality in the first quarter of 2024 was similar to the low mortality seen in the first quarters of 2019, 2020 and 2022. This is a significant improvement compared to 2023, with cumulative mortality rates currently 2.9% lower.
  • This significant improvement was primarily driven by older age mortality where most deaths occur. Mortality rates in the working age population remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic lows.
  • There were around 3,400 deaths involving COVID-19 registered in the first quarter of 2024, compared to around 7,700 in the first quarter of 2023 and 12,800 in the first quarter of 2022.
  • Average mortality over the last twelve months is now also close to the record low, with only periods including 2019 having had lower annual average mortality.

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “After periods of high and volatile mortality during the peak of the pandemic, we have now seen several months of lower mortality rates more in line with typical seasonal variations.

“However, the picture is less rosy for the working age population who are still seeing mortality higher than pre-pandemic lows.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

  1. The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:
    • Each week we publish a summary monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 14 of 2024 on Wednesday 17 April 2024.
    • Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for week 26 of 2024, in July 2024.
  2. Cumulative mortality is calculated assuming that mortality in the remaining part of the year is the same as for the comparative period.

Contact

Sonia Sequeira, Communications Lead, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

About the Continuous Mortality Investigation

Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.

The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.

About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.

Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.

Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.

Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.

Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.

The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.