IFoA Middle East Conference 2025

Empowering tomorrow: The actuarial catalyst for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 stands as a transformative national roadmap, aiming to diversify the economy, foster social development, and secure a sustainable future for all citizens. 

This presentation explores how actuaries, with their specialised expertise in risk assessment, financial modelling and predictive analysis, are poised to play a pivotal role in realising these ambitious goals. 

In an era of rapid economic transformation, actuaries stand ready to bridge the gap between aspiration and tangible results, providing rigorous analysis for sustainable growth and resilience.

Focusing on key pillars such as insurance, pensions, healthcare and infrastructure, we examine real-world scenarios where actuarial insights ensure long-term financial stability and inform forward-thinking policy measures. 

As Vision 2030 strives to reduce dependence on oil revenue, expand the private sector and strengthen public services, actuaries emerge as strategic partners in data-driven decision-making, ensuring that economic growth is both resilient and sustainable.

The presentation further delves into potential challenges, ranging from data limitations and evolving regulatory landscapes to shifting demographic trends. It also highlights opportunities for actuaries to innovate and collaborate with policymakers, financial institutions and emerging technologies. 

By emphasizing continuous professional development and cross-disciplinary partnerships, we demonstrate how actuaries can safeguard the Kingdom’s financial health while propelling national ambitions toward a diversified, knowledge-based economy. 

Ultimately, this session underscores the vital contributions of actuarial science in shaping a resilient, forward-looking Saudi Arabia that empowers tomorrow’s generations and sets a global benchmark for visionary leadership.

Speakers: Mohamed Seghir, HAYAH Insurance

The world according to Enterprise

Speakers: Patrick FitzPatrick, Editor-in-chief, EnterpriseAM and Moustafa Bassiouny, Partner, The Enterprise Company 

Risk based capital

Speakers: Hasham Piperdy, Manaal Siddiqui and Shifa Dandia, Badri Management Consultancy

The role of product development in creating a market: How actuaries and management work together to successfully launch products

Speakers: Asad Irshad, Milliman Saudi Arabia

Medical provider banding: An analytical approach towards optimising medical provider networks

This presentation will provide an analytical approach to determining the optimal grouping of medical providers into networks. 

This will include practical and commercial considerations specific to the KSA market, including the differing profile of claims utilisation by region (Central, Eastern, Western) and by major sub-benefits.

Key areas we expect to include:

• Importance of optimising provider networking
• Current approaches 
• Importance of proper data preparation before analysis, including defining a unique claim vs unique episode
• Understanding the differences in regional experience(Central vs Western vs Eastern)
• Differentiating between providers, provider groups and provider types
• Risk standardisation of provider claims, to normalise for providers who generally see higher risk patients
• Claims severity curve fitting
• Analysis of number of claims per unique claimant and number of unique claimants
• Key commercial considerations
• Monitoring the impact of change

Speakers: Shivash Bhagaloo, Lux Actuaries Saudi

Shaping the future of actuarial excellence in Saudi Arabia: Building professional and scientific foundations

Climate change disclosure requirements

Climate change disclosures, as well as broader environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosures, are important tools. They help stakeholders understand the risks and opportunities faced by companies, and the impact companies have on the environment and beyond.

They also help us understand where companies are on their journey to net zero, acting as signposts to remind companies about the commitments they have made.

As chair of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) Climate Change Disclosure Working Party, I have published several blogs, newsletters and a research paper on global climate change disclosure requirements via the IFoA blog site:  https://blog.actuaries.org.uk/topics/climate-change-disclosure/.

The research paper gives a general background to disclosure requirements, discusses greenwashing and details disclosure organisations including TCFD and the ISSB. It also provides details on a country level e.g. Saudi Arabia, the EU, the UK and the US, including green taxonomies. 

The aim of this talk is to give an overview of current prominent climate disclosure requirement practices around the world. It will help us understand the challenges faced by companies and individuals in implementing climate change disclosures, and look at potential solutions, for example through internal governance and IT.

Speakers: Debashish Dey, Aviva

The impact of climate change on insurance and pension models: Navigating uncertainty and modelling adaptations

With climate change driving increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, shifting mortality and morbidity trends and introducing new financial risks, actuaries must adapt traditional models to remain relevant. 

The evolving regulatory landscape, including ESG requirements and carbon footprint considerations, further amplifies the challenges in pricing, reserving, asset liability management and capital adequacy.

This session will explore how climate risk is reshaping insurance and pension models, focusing on risk assessment, regulatory shifts, data limitations, and forward-looking approaches. 

Key discussions will include integrating climate risk into actuarial models, leveraging AI and machine learning for improved risk prediction and addressing capital management implications due to changing reinsurer stances and regulatory frameworks.

Additionally, the session will address data challenges such as the lack of historical precedent for extreme climate-related events, and strategies for incorporating real-time data analytics. 

Attendees will gain insights into flexible pricing models, sustainable investment strategies and resilience-focused capital planning to navigate the increasing uncertainty posed by climate change.

Speakers: Nikhil Dodhia, CAIS

AI integration in investment management

AI has been a hot topic in recent years, and the rise of AI has led to many companies questioning how it can be best used in assessing financial risks, especially when it comes to asset liability management and investment management.

Based on my experiences as an investment actuary in the Middle East, this session will cover:

• Investment managers’ current and planned applications of AI in assessing risk and developing investment strategies
• Views on AI-driven investment opportunities emerging over the long term at asset class/sector level
• Expectations around future impact of AI on global capital markets, alpha generation and risk management
• Current and anticipated impacts of AI technologies on operations and strategy

The presentation will be supported by Mercer’s global survey* “AI integration in investment management”, which shares key insights and data from 150 asset managers across various asset classes.

Speakers: Suman Sidhu, Mercer

The role of pension systems in capital market development: Experiences and lessons learned

Pension systems play a pivotal role in shaping financial markets, particularly in emerging economies. 

In the Middle East and Africa, pension funds have grown to become significant institutional investors, influencing capital market development through asset allocation strategies, infrastructure financing, and corporate governance participation. 

However, challenges persist, including regulatory constraints, limited investment instruments and liquidity concerns.

This presentation will explore how pension systems in the Middle East and Africa have contributed to the development of local capital markets, drawing on case studies from the regions. 

It will analyse key policy reforms, the evolution of investment frameworks and the role of pension funds in fostering financial inclusion and long-term economic stability.

Additionally, the discussion will highlight structural barriers that limit deeper integration between pension systems and capital markets, including investment restrictions, currency volatility, and governance challenges. 

By examining international best practices and local experiences, this session will provide insights into policy adjustments and strategic shifts that could enhance the effectiveness of pension-driven capital market development.

Attendees will gain a comprehensive understanding of the synergies between pension systems and capital markets, identifying opportunities for strengthening financial ecosystems in the region.

Speakers: Sundeep Raichura and Tanmeet Kaur, Zamara MENA

Saudi Arabia public health sector transformation

As part of the ongoing transformation of Saudi Arabia’s public health sector, the Ministry of Health, in collaboration with the national strategic health payer CNHI, is transitioning to the implementation phase. 

This phase focuses on moving from traditional, input-based budgeting to value-based payment models, with risk-adjusted capitation as the primary payment approach for accountable care organizations (ACOs). 

This session will focus on the fundamentals of capitation models, with a deep dive on risk adjustment methodologies for ACO budget estimation and models for financial monitoring and reporting, and strategic approaches to implementing these models.

Speakers: Neha Taneja and Samar Badran, Center for National Health Insurance

Model risk management

Models play a critical role in decision-making processes, but they also come with inherent risks that can significantly impact financial and strategic outcomes. 

The growing reliance on diverse data and complex methodologies such as AI and ML has heightened these risks, and organisations may experience financial losses as a result. 

This session will focus on model governance and risk management, drawing on recent industry discussions and real-life experiences.

It is designed for actuaries and industry professionals at various experience levels and will be relevant to all sectors: P&C insurance, life insurance, and pensions.

Speakers: Eman Abutaleb, KPMG and Nada El Ghabaty, Nitaq for Actuarial Services

Transforming actuarial insights into actionable business strategies

This presentation will outline the critical challenges organisations face in making informed financial decisions, particularly in the context of actuarial data. 

Understanding these challenges is essential for recognising the importance of integrating advanced analytics into business operations. 

The presentation will highlight how advanced technology, including AI, allows stakeholders with varying levels of technical expertise to engage with complex actuarial insights. This democratisation of data access fosters a more inclusive decision-making environment. 

The conclusion of the presentation will provide a summary of essential takeaways, reinforcing the key points discussed throughout the session and ensuring that attendees leave with a clear understanding of the benefits of leveraging technology in actuarial data analysis.

Speakers: Adrien de Nazelle, Oliver Wyman

Tomorrow’s insurance today: AI-driven transformation in the GCC

The insurance industry in the GCC is at a pivotal juncture, where technological innovation and artificial intelligence (AI) are no longer optional but essential for staying competitive. 

This presentation, “Tomorrow’s insurance today: AI-driven transformation in the GCC”, explores the transformative potential of AI in reshaping the insurance sector. 

Attendees will gain insights into global trends and regional developments, focusing on actionable strategies for implementing AI. 

From claims reductions by AI to personalized customer experiences, we will discuss real-world use cases demonstrating AI’s ability to streamline operations and enhance decision making. 

Designed for C-level executives, this keynote simplifies complex AI concepts and provides a practical roadmap for initiating AI projects. 

Whether starting small or scaling operations, this session empowers leaders to take immediate, meaningful steps toward technological leadership. 

The future is moving fast. This is your guide to keeping pace and leading the change.

Speakers: Frederik Bisbjerg, eData

Embracing AI for insurance pricing innovation

The adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) is reshaping industries. In insurance, one of the areas of transformation is pricing. 

By adopting AI, insurers can achieve more precise risk differentiation, improved competitiveness and increased profitability. 

This presentation will explore the practical application of AI in insurance pricing, offering actionable insights for actuaries and underwriters.

Key topics include:

• An introduction to AI/ML techniques (supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning) and possible models for insurance pricing
• Hybrid approaches, such as combining Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) with Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to balance interpretability and predictive power
• A deep dive into Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs), featuring a case study on a French motor insurance dataset, with comparison to GLMs
• Insights into why AI/ML models outperform traditional methods, supported by technical results, tables, and graphs
• Validation techniques to ensure AI/ML models meet actuarial and regulatory standards, alongside discussions on implementation challenges and ethical considerations

This interactive session will encourage participants to draw parallels between traditional actuarial pricing models and AI/ML approaches, fostering a deeper understanding of how these advanced techniques can complement existing practices. 

The presentation will highlight the strengths of AI/ML models, such as their ability to uncover complex patterns, while addressing concerns around interpretability and adoption.

Targeted at actuaries and underwriters with basic to intermediate knowledge of pricing, this session aims to inspire confidence in adopting AI/ML models. It will include insights from credible research and case studies, equipping attendees to drive innovation in insurance pricing.

Speakers: Waqar Afzal, Medgulf Insurance