Ocean Maelstrom: navigating the climate storm

10 November 2026

A new report from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA), in collaboration with the University of Exeter and The Ocean Race, examines how growing pressures on ocean systems could create significant risks for people, businesses and economies.

Drawing on the latest scientific evidence, 'Ocean Maelstrom: navigating the climate storm', highlights the increasing threat posed by climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and overexploitation of marine resources.

The report introduces the concept of Ocean Solvency as a way of assessing whether the ocean can continue to provide the critical services on which humanity depends, including climate regulation, food security, carbon storage and coastal protection.

To illustrate the scale and interconnected nature of these challenges, the report presents Ocean Maelstrom, a systemic risk scenario that explores how ocean degradation could combine with wider environmental and economic pressures to create cascading impacts across food systems, supply chains, financial markets and communities. The scenario is not a prediction, but a tool to help decision-makers understand and prepare for plausible future risks.

It is argued that governments, businesses, investors and financial institutions need to strengthen their understanding of ocean-related risks and opportunities. It also highlights the potential for recovery, demonstrating that ocean ecosystems can respond positively when effective action is taken to reduce pressure and support restoration.

The report therefore recommends:

1. Adopting realistic risk-assessment frameworks that include ocean degradation, tipping points and interacting systemic risks.

2. Integrating Ocean Solvency into government, regulatory and financial decision-making.

3. Accelerating ocean protection and restoration through stronger policy, enforcement and investment.

4. Developing financial structures that enable capital to support ocean resilience and systemic-risk reduction.

5. Closing the say-do gap by translating existing ocean commitments into measurable delivery.

Sandy Trust FIA, lead author, said:

"The ocean is critical infrastructure for our economy, but it remains largely invisible in economic and financial risk assessments. That is a dangerous blind spot.

"Ocean degradation does not remain offshore. It can transmit through food production, trade, insurance and financial markets—contributing to higher prices, greater pressure on household finances and weaker retirement outcomes.

"Ocean recovery is possible, but commitments must now translate into delivery. Governments and financial institutions need to recognise the risk, strengthen resilience and direct more capital towards protecting and restoring ocean health."

Further IFoA research reports