Mortality close to pre-pandemic level, says CMI

8 February 2022

Cobus Daneel, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said:

“We have now seen 30 consecutive weeks of excess mortality in the UK, the longest run of excess mortality during the pandemic.

In the second half of 2021, the number of excess deaths was similar to the number of deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate. However, the picture is very different in weeks 2 to 4 of 2022 – with nearly 5,000 mentions of COVID-19 on UK death certificates, but fewer than 400 excess deaths. This shows that while COVID has contributed to a significant number of deaths, overall mortality is similar to the pre-pandemic level for the time of year.”

All mortality monitor weekly updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.

~ENDS~

Notes to editors

1. We define “excess” deaths as the difference between actual deaths in a week, and those that we would have expected if mortality rates had been the same as in the corresponding week of 2019. We use 2019 as the most recent “normal” year of mortality observed, as mortality in the first 12 weeks of 2019 and 2020 were similar.
2. For the purposes of the mortality monitor, the CMI treats the pandemic as being deaths registered from week 10 of 2020 onwards (i.e. from 29 February 2020).
3. The CMI publishes three types of mortality monitor:
   • A weekly “summary” pandemic monitor, without a press release. The next is planned for week 5 of 2022 on Tuesday 15 February 2022.
   • A more detailed pandemic monitor, with a press release, every four or five weeks. The next is planned for week 8 of 2022 on Tuesday 8 March 2022.
   • A quarterly monitor, in a format that pre-dates the pandemic. The next is planned for week 13 of 2022 on Tuesday 12 April 2022.

Contact
Sonia Sequeira, Media Relations Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07525 592 198
Email: sonia.sequeira@actuaries.org.uk

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