7 October 2026
The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) publishes frequent mortality analysis for England & Wales through its mortality monitors. Today’s update covers death registrations to 25 September 2026.
The key points are:
Overall mortality rates in the first three quarters of 2026 were lower than in the first three quarters of any earlier year for males and females.
Mortality rates in the third quarter of 2026 were lower than in the third quarter of any earlier year, although similar to 2025.
Mortality rates have fallen by 6-10% for all age-groups over the last three years, leading to record lows in 2026 for most age-groups. However, mortality for young males, which had been rising prior to the pandemic, remains higher than the record low seen in 2012 despite recent improvements.
There were around 54,900 deaths involving influenza or pneumonia registered in the first three quarters of 2026, lower than the range of 62,900 to 67,500 seen in the first three quarters of 2023 to 2025.
There were around 900 deaths recorded in the first three quarters of 2026 as involving COVID-19, compared to 13,600, 7,600 and 3,200 in the first three quarters of 2023, 2024 and 2025.
Steve Bale FIA C.Act, Chair of the CMI Mortality Projections Committee, said: “Despite increases in deaths seen during the summer heatwaves, mortality across Q3 was at a similarly low level to last year.
“Mortality for the first three quarters of the year is at record low levels in 2026 for most age groups considered in the mortality monitor. The exception is young males, whose mortality is still around 1% higher than was seen in 2012.”
All mortality monitor updates are publicly available on the mortality monitor page.
~ENDS~
Notes to editors
The CMI publishes mortality monitors regularly:
We publish a summary monitor monthly, every four or five weeks, without a press release. The next is planned for week 44 of 2026 on Wednesday 11 November 2026.
Each quarter we publish more detail, accompanied by a press release. The next is planned for data to the end of 2026, in January 2027.
Although deaths reported by the ONS by date of occurrence show clear spikes during the summer heatwaves, this is less clear in the registrations data used for the mortality monitor as the impact is spread over multiple weeks.
Contact
Hannah Patmore, Communications Manager, IFoA
Tel: 07519106714
Email: hannah.patmore@actuaries.org.uk
About the Continuous Mortality Investigation
Continuous Mortality Investigation Limited (‘the CMI’) is wholly owned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries but has an independent executive and management.
The CMI’s mission is to produce high-quality impartial analysis, standard tables and models of mortality and morbidity for long-term insurance products and pension scheme liabilities on behalf of subscribers and, in doing so, to further actuarial understanding.
About the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is a royal chartered, not-for-profit, professional body.
Research undertaken by the IFoA is not commercial. As a learned society, research helps us to fulfil our royal charter requirements to further actuarial science and serve the public interest.
Actuaries provide commercial, financial and prudential advice on the management of a business’s assets and liabilities, especially where long term management and planning are critical to the success of any business venture. They also advise individuals, and advise on social and public interest issues.
Members of the IFoA have a statutory role in the supervision of pension funds and life insurance companies. They also have a statutory role to provide actuarial opinions for managing agents at Lloyd’s of London.
Members are governed by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. A rigorous examination system is supported by a programme of continuing professional development and a professional code of conduct supports high standards reflecting the significant role of actuaries in society.
The IFoA is available to provide independent expert comment to the media on a range of actuarial-related issues, including COVID-19 and its long term consequences, mortality, pensions, life and general insurance, health and care, finance and investment, climate change and sustainability, systems thinking, uncertainty and judgement, and risk management.